[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...Special Features...

...GALE WARNING GULF OF MEXICO...

A large area of gale force winds is expected to develop in the
Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon along and behind a vigorous
cold front. The gales will progress eastward through the Gulf,
exiting the Gulf by Friday evening. Areas north of 24N between
82W-95W are forecast to experience gale force winds, with some
areas as high as 40 kt. Seas across portions of the central Gulf
will build to 12 ft by Thursday afternoon and as high as 20 ft by
late Thursday night. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...GALE WARNING ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale force winds are expected in the western Atlantic N of 28N
between 78W-81W beginning around 20/1800 ahead of a cold front.
The area of gales will expand significantly late Thursday night
and early Friday morning as the cold front moves through the
waters. Gale force winds are forecast through the NW Bahamas
southward to 25N and between 72W-80W, including near the coast of
South Florida. By late Friday, the gales will still be occurring
in the area. Seas in portions of the area will build to 10-20 ft
late Thursday into Friday. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to
04N20W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 25W-
47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low is centered over S Louisiana near 30N89W. A cold
front extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. A
stationary front extends E from the low to N Florida near 30N81W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of
Mexico N of 22N and E of 91W to include most of Florida. In the
upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the W Gulf
producing diffluence over the E Gulf and enhancing convection.

The current cold front will move E across the central gulf waters
overnight and through the eastern waters on Thu and Fri. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds will develop over the eastern
waters overnight ahead of the front. Strong to near gale force
westerly winds currently developing W of the front will increase
to gale force on Thu, with seas building to 21 ft across the east-
central waters on Thu night and Fri. A post-frontal surface high
will shift E across the central gulf waters on Sat, and move NE
across the Florida Panhandle on Sun leaving a weak ridge from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean is currently experiencing fairly quiet
weather with only some light to moderate trade wind showers
possible over the SE Caribbean as well as the area south of the
Windward Passage over toward Jamaica. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the southern Gulf of Mexico just
north of the Yucatan Channel.

Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean through Mon, increasing to near gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia each night with minimal gale conditions possible
on Sat night. Strong southerly flow will develop across the W
Caribbean overnight ahead of a cold front entering the Yucatan
Channel on Thu. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to
Costa Rica by Sat morning, then drift S while gradually
dissipating through Sun. Strong northerly winds are expected
behind the front on Fri, increasing to near gale force along
Nicaragua coast on Fri into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N46W to 25N60W,
then continues as a stationary front to 23N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm E of front N of 28N. A
1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N30W.

The remnants of a front will lift N across the
central waters through Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly
flow will develop N of the Bahamas early Thu, with these
conditions spreading S to along 22N while increasing to minimal
gale force of 24N late Thu on both sides of a strong cold front
moving off the SE United States coast. The front will reach from
30N75W to central Cuba on Fri, and from Bermuda to the Windward
Passage on Sat. Winds will begin to diminish from the W on Sat
with seas less than 8 ft throughout on Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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