[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...Special Features...

...GALE WARNING GULF OF MEXICO...

A large area of gale force winds is expected to develop in the
Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon along and behind a vigorous
cold front. The gales will progress eastward through the Gulf,
exiting the Gulf by Friday evening. Areas north of 24N between
82W-95W are forecast to experience gale force winds, with some
areas as high as 40 kt. Seas across portions of the central Gulf
will build to 12 ft by Thursday afternoon and as high as 20 ft by
late Thursday night.

...GALE WARNING ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale force winds are expected in the western Atlantic N of 28N
between 78W-81W beginning around 20/1800 ahead of a cold front.
The area of gales will expand significantly late Thursday night
and early Friday morning as the cold front moves through the
waters. Gale force winds are forecast through the NW Bahamas
southward to 25N and between 72W-80W, including near the coast of
South Florida. By late Friday, the gales will still be occurring
in the area. Seas in portions of the area will build to 10-20 ft
late Thursday into Friday.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N08W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to
04N20W to 01N29W to 01N37W to 02N41W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N-06N between 30W-46W. Scattered
showers from 00N-05N extend west of 46W to the coast of South
America. Scattered showers are seen from 03N-06N between 23W-30W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 03N-14N
within 300 nm of the west coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous mid-upper level trough digging southward across the
western Gulf of Mexico is supporting a 1006 mb surface low near
the south-central coast of Louisiana near 30N92W at 19/2100 UTC. A
cold front extends from the low to 28N91W to 24N93W to the coast
of Mexico near 20N96W to 20N97W. A warm front extends eastward
from the low to 30N89W to 29N84W. A pre-frontal squall line is
ahead of the cold front from 30N89W to 26N92W. Numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is seen north of 25.5N from 88W-
92W. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere within a box
bounded by 30N91W 26N95W 23N95W 23N91W 31N86W 30N91W. A second
area of convection is seen over the eastern Gulf. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection with this second area of
convection is seen from 24N-27N between 83W-86W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 23N-29N between 82W-86W.
This includes the west coast of Florida between Sarasota and the
Big Bend. Additional scattered thunderstorms are developing south
of 23N extending towards the Yucatan Channel, north of the western
tip of Cuba.

The current cold front will continue quickly eastward across the
Gulf tonight through early Fri with widespread strong
thunderstorms. Strong to near gale force S winds will develop over
the E waters tonight ahead of the front. Strong to near gale
force westerly winds W of the front will increase to gale force on
Thu with seas building to near 20 ft across the east-central
waters on Thu night. A post-frontal surface high pressure will
shift E across the central Gulf on Sat, and move NE across the
Florida Panhandle on Sun leaving a weak ridge from the Florida Big
Bend to SE Texas on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean is currently experiencing fairly quiet
weather with only some light to moderate trade wind showers
possible over the SE Caribbean as well as the area south of the
Windward Passage over toward Jamaica. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the southern Gulf of Mexico just
north of the Yucatan Channel. It is possible that some scattered
thunderstorms may develop over the Yucatan Channel and far NW
Caribbean overnight.

Strong southerly winds will develop across the W Caribbean Sea
overnight, ahead of a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel on
Thursday. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to
southern Nicaragua by Sat morning, then stall and gradually
dissipate through Sun. Strong northerly winds are expected behind
the front on Fri, increasing to near gale force along the Nicaragua
coast on Fri into Sat. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds will
continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through Monday,
with near gale force near the coast of Colombia each night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N47W to 25N60W to 23N65W, then
continues as a stationary front to 22N70W to 22.5N74.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of a
line from 26N52W to beyond 32N46W.

Showers emanating from the developing system over the southern
U.S. and Gulf of Mexico have begun to spread into the Atlantic.
Currently, scattered showers are noted west of 80W off the coast
of Georgia through central Florida. Expect thunderstorm coverage
to increase over the western Atlantic on Thursday as a squall line
and cold front approaches from the west.

The remnants of the front currently from 23N65W to 22.5N74.5W
will lift N across the central waters through Thu. Strong
southerly flow will develop N of the Bahamas early Thu, with
strong to near gale force winds spreading S to 22N while
increasing to minimal gale force N of 24N late Thu on both sides
of a strong cold front moving off the SE United States coast. The
front will reach from 30N75W to central Cuba on Fri, and from
Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Sat. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected across the Straits of Florida, the northern and
the central Bahamas Thu and Fri. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are also expected prior to and along with the frontal passage
Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Locally enhanced winds and
seas can be expected near the stronger thunderstorms. Winds will
diminish from the W on Sat with seas less than 8 ft on Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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