[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W to 05N14W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 04N21W to 01N30W to 03N39W. A
surface trough is along 41W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes
from 03N44W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 36W-46W, from 06S-00N
between 32W-43W, and from 01N-04N between 26W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf Coast and the Gulf of
Mexico. Three highs of 1025, 1025 and 1027 mb respectively are
centered over SW Mississippi, S Texas and NE Mexico. Although
broken clouds cover much of the northern Gulf of Mexico, little in
the way of any shower activity is noted. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate winds across the basin.

A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night
as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas towards North
Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of
Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a cold front
across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to
deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon as the low pressure
deepens over the SE United States. Strong to minimal gale force
winds are expected across the central and northern Gulf Thu night
and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A
stationary front extends N from the low to 21N81W to Cuba near
21N77W to the Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front in the NW Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean. However, strong to
near gales were shown by last night's ASCAT pass near the coast of
Colombia. Gentle winds are between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

The stationary front from eastern Cuba to 16N85W will dissipate
by tonight, and its remnants will then move westward as a trough
across the NW Caribbean on Tue. The trough will reach the Yucatan
Peninsula by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across
the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, reaching near gale
force, mainly at night. The next cold front is forecast to enter
the NW Caribbean by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 32N63W to 23N74W.
The front continues as a stationary front from 23N74W to eastern
Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead
of the cold front within 60 nm of a line running from 32N58W to
29N61.5W to 26.5NN67W. Some clouds and isolated showers are in
the western Atlantic, north of 30N and west of 72W. Surface
ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered near 25N51W.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will push E and extend
from 28N65W across the SE Bahamas by this evening, and from 25N65W
to the Turks and Caicos by Tue evening. The western portion of
the front is forecast to lift northward Wed through Thu as another
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong to gale
force winds and building seas mainly across the waters N of the
Bahamas late Thu through Fri night as a low pressure system
deepens over the SE United States dragging a cold front over the
region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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