[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N14W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02N30W to 03N38W. A surface
trough is along 40W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from
03N42W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 06S-04N between 25W-36W, from 01S-09N
between 36W-42W, and from 00N-04N between 42W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over S Texas near 29N97W. Surface
ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the
frontal boundary that currently extends across the western
Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds
across the basin. Scattered to broken low clouds is over most of
the Gulf.

A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico
through Tue night as a high pressure center moves from eastern
Texas towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE
from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu,
dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions
are expected to deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon
as the low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Strong
to minimal gale force winds are expected across the northern
waters Thu night and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A
stationary front also extends N from the low to 21N82W to Cuba
near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the Gulf
of Honduras and over the south central Caribbean south of 16N
between 70W-77W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to locally strong northerly winds W of the front
are forecast to persist today. The front will dissipate by tonight,
and its remnants will then move westward as a trough across the
NW Caribbean on Tue. The trough will reach the Yucatan Peninsula
by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia reaching near gale
force mainly at night. The next cold front is forecast to enter
the NW Caribbean by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to the S
Bahamas near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 27N between 60W-67W. Surface ridging prevails
across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N51W.

The front will push E and extend from 28N65W across the SE
Bahamas to Camaguey, Cuba by Mon evening, and from 25N65W to
eastern Cuba by Tue evening. The western portion of the front is
forecast to lift northward Wed through Thu as another cold front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong to gale force winds
and building seas mainly across the waters N of the Bahamas late
Thu through Fri night as a low pressure system deepens over the SE
of United States dragging a cold front over the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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