[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02N25W to 03N38W. A surface
trough is along 39W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from
04N41W to the coast of N Brazil near 03N51W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 05S-04N between 21W-36W, from 03N-08N
between 36W-41W, and from 01S-03N between 41W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over S Texas near 27N99W. Surface
ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the
frontal boundary that currently extends across the western
Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds
across the basin. Scattered to broken low clouds is over most of
the Gulf.

A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico
through Tue night as a high pressure center moves from eastern
Texas towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE
from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging
a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are
expected to deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon as the
low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Near gale force
winds are expected across the northern waters Thu night through
Fri afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A
stationary front extends S from the low along the coasts of
Honduras and Nicaragua to 15N83W to 12N83W. A stationary front
also extends N from the low to 20N82W to Cuba near 22N77W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras and
over the south central Caribbean south of 16N between 70W-77W.
gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

The front will dissipate across the Caribbean waters Monday
evening. A surface trough, remnants of the front, will then move
west over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to strong winds
will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with the strongest winds near the coast of
Colombia reaching near gale force mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N68W to the S
Bahamas near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 28N between 65W-70W. Surface ridging prevails
across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N47W.

The front will push E and extend from 28N65W to the southern
Bahamas by Mon evening, stall from 24N65W to the central Bahamas
Tue evening and dissipate over the SE waters early on Wed. Expect
strong to near gale S winds and building seas across the waters N
of the Bahamas on Thu. Winds will increase to gale force Thu night
through Fri morning as a low pressure system deepens over the SE
of United States dragging a cold front over the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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