[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 03N36W.
A surface trough is along 38W from 10N southward. The ITCZ
resumes from 05N38W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection are
noted south of 13N between 25W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin in the wake of the
frontal boundary that currently extends across the western
Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds
across the basin.

The ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48
to 72 hours as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas to
SE Louisiana by Sun evening, and toward the Florida Panhandle by
Mon evening. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of
Texas to the SE United States by mid week, dragging a new cold
front across the Gulf waters by the end of the week. Marine
conditions could deteriorate across the region starting on
Thursday as the low pressure deepens over the southeast of United
States.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic into the west
Caribbean as a stationary front from 22N79W to 18N84W to 15N83W,
then weakens to 11N84W. Scattered showers are noted along the
front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the
Gulf of Honduras and over the south central Caribbean south of 16N
between 70W-77W. gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

The front will dissipate across the Caribbean waters by Tuesday.
Fresh northerly winds will continue west of the front across the
Gulf of Honduras through Monday. Fresh to strong winds will
persist across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast
period, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia mainly
at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N70W to
22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the cold
front mainly north of 27N. Surface ridging prevails across the
basin anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N56W.

The front will continue moving east and extend from 28N65W to
eastern Cuba by Monday evening, and from 24N65W across the SE
Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Tuesday evening, then stall and
dissipate on by mid-week. Expect increasing winds and building
seas across the western Atlantic waters on Thursday, as a low
pressure system deepens over the southeast US.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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