[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from 06N12W to 04N28W.
A surface trough is along 31W from 02N-09N. The ITCZ resumes from
02N34W to 01S45W. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N and
west of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A paiR of cold fronts extend across the eastern gulf waters. The
first one is from 26N80W to 23N83W then continues across the west
Caribbean. The second front extends from 30N81W to 23N86W.
Scattered showers are noted along each front. A surface trough is
analyzed from 31N83W to 28N85W. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb surface high
centered over northern Mexico.

The first cold front will will move slowly east and exit the
basin and the Straits of Florida tonight. Strong northwest winds
and seas to 9 ft behind the front will diminish gradually through
tonight, becoming light north winds on Sunday and Monday.
Easterly wind flow will set up across the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, as weak low pressure develops in the SW Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba near 22N83W to
16N86W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 22N81W to 11N83W. Scattered
showers are over the northwest Caribbean from mainly west of 82W.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an
upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry
air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The cold front in the northwest Caribbean will stall and slowly
dissipate through Monday. Strong north winds are forecast west of
the front in the Gulf of Honduras through early Sunday. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean east of 80W
through early Sun, with highest winds at night off the coast of
Colombia. Large north swell will continue across the Leewards
and spread through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean
through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to
26N80W, while a secondary front is pushing offshore north of 30N
and west of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of
the first cold front mainly north of 26N between 75W-78W. To the
east, another frontal boundary is analyzed as a cold front from
31N29W to 27N40W, then as a stationary front from that point to
24N55W to 28N68W. Scattered showers are observed along the cold
front.

Strong SE to S winds will continue east of Florida and the
Bahamas tonight, ahead of the cold fronts. The first cold front
will reach from 31N76W to Straits of Florida this evening, from
31N73W across the northwest Bahamas to central Cuba on Sunday
afternoon, from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas and east
central Cuba on Monday afternoon, and then stall and weaken from
near 25N66W to the eastern end of Cuba on Tuesday. The fronts
over the central Atlantic will continue weakening through early
next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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