[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from 06N12W to 05N23W.
A surface trough is along 09N28W 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from
02N34W, crossing the Equator along 36W, to 01S41W and 01S45W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
02N to 04S between 22W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from the Equator to 07N between 18W and
37W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough cuts through the Florida Big Bend, into the Gulf
of Mexico near 28N85W, continuing southwestward to 21N92W.
Rainshowers are possible across much of the Gulf of Mexico in
areas of broken low level clouds. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
still spans the Gulf of Mexico, with the upper level trough that
is steering the Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida-to-NW Caribbean Sea cold
front.

The current cold front will will move slowly E and exit the
basin and the Straits of Florida tonight. Strong NW Winds and high
seas behind the front will diminish gradually from this afternoon
through tonight, becoming light north winds on Sunday and Monday.
Easterly wind flow will set up across the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, as weak low pressure develops in the SW Gulf of
Mexico.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, INTO THE
NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 32N80W off the coast of South
Carolina, to 30N79W, cutting across the southernmost parts of
Florida just to the east of Lake Okeechobee and across the Florida
Keys. The front continues across NW Cuba, into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to the western coastal areas of Honduras,
through western Honduras, and across southern sections of
Guatemala into the SW corner of Guatemala. A surface trough is in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the coast of Cuba near
22N81W, to 20N82W 16N82W, and then along the coast of Nicaragua to
12N at the coast of Nicaragua. Broken low level clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea to the west
of the line that runs from the coastal border of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua, to western Jamaica and SE Cuba. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 29N
northward between 73W and 78W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward.

The current cold front will become nearly stationary across the
central Honduras coast, while moving slowly eastward across the NW
Caribbean Sea, reaching central Cuba on Sunday afternoon, eastern
Cuba on Monday afternoon, and then dissipating across the eastern
end of Cuba on Tuesday. Strong north winds are expected W of the
front across the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. Fresh to strong
trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea E of 80W through
early Sunday, with the highest winds at night off the NW coast of
Colombia. Large north swell moving through the Atlantic Ocean
waters off the Leewards today will continue to spread through the
NE Caribbean Sea passages through Sunday.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N28W to 27N40W. The front continues
as stationary from 27N40W to 25N50W 25N59W, to 26N66W and to
28N70W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 28N42W to
32N34W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the north of the
line that runs through 32N25W to 25N40W to 22N56W to 23N65W beyond
30N70W.

Strong SE to S winds are expected east of Florida and the Bahamas
today, ahead of the current cold front that cuts across Florida
and continues into the NW Caribbean Sea. The cold front will
reach from 31N76W to Straits of Florida this evening, from 31N73W
across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on Sunday afternoon, from
near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and E central Cuba on Monday
afternoon, and then stall and weaken from near 25N66W to the
eastern end of Cuba on Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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