[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 30-hour forecast, from the 08/0600 UTC forecast, consists of:
a low pressure center to the NE of the area. A cold front from
29N83W to 22N91W to 18N95W. Expect NW-to-N GALE-FORCE winds, and
sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, S of 22N W of 95W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 36-hour forecast, from the 08/0600 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front approaching along the Florida coast. Expect S-to-SW
GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet,
N of 29N between 76W and 80W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04W,
to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W, to 03N25W, crossing
the Equator along 39W, to 02S45W at the coast of Brazil.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
05N to 07N between 27W and 31W, from 03N to 07N between 37W and
47W, and along the coast of Brazil from 02N southward between 49W
and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Florida near 28N82W, through SE Louisiana to SW Louisiana.
A warm front continues from Louisiana to a 1013 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N95W along the middle Texas coast. A cold
front continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to the Deep
South of Texas/extreme NE Mexico. The front becomes stationary in
Mexico, and it curves northwestward beyond 32N107W beyond the Far
West of Texas. An upper level trough is digging through New
Mexico/Texas/Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
in the coastal waters of Texas within 180 nm of the coast, and
within 150 nm of the southern coast of Louisiana.plains from 29N
to 31N between 94W and 97W. Upper level clouds have spread across
the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW of the line that runs from 20N97W
beyond 27N82W.

A NE Gulf of Mexico low pressure center will track eastward along
the U.S.A. Gulf of Mexico coast, dragging a cold front across the
Gulf of Mexico, during this weekend. Strong to near gale-force
southerly winds will be ahead of the cold front, mainly N of 26N.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail to the W of the front from
tonight through Sunday night. GALE-FORCE winds will be expected
in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will shift E of
the Gulf waters early on Monday night. Surface high pressure will
build in its wake.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough,
covers the area from 15N southward from the Windward Passage
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that
is from 15N northward from the Windward Passage westward. An upper
level trough cuts across Puerto Rico toward 14N72W.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...are 0.47 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond
the southern sections of Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible
from 11N southward from 75W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night, pulsing to near GALE-FORCE
off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into
the Yucatan Channel on Sunday night, reaching from near the
Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tuesday
night, where it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday. Fresh
to strong winds will prevail behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 27N60W to 24N70W,
curving across the central Bahamas, and to the coast of Cuba near
21N78W. A surface trough is within 180 nm to 240 nm to the ESE of
the stationary front. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N46W
to 25N60W to 20N70W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N27W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 35W. One surface trough is along
28W/29W from 18N to 27N. A second trough is along 25N24W 19N22W
15N20W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward
between 19W and 33W.

The current stationary front will dissipate today. A cold front
will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday. GALE-FORCE
wind conditions are possible N of 28N ahead of the front, in
southerly wind flow, through Monday. It is possible that another
low pressure center may develop off the Carolinas on Monday night,
potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through
the middle of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net