[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 36-hour forecast, from the 08/0000 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front from 29N83W to 26N87W to 22N91W to 18N95W. Expect NW-
to-N GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights less than 8 feet, S of 21N
W of 95W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast, from the 08/0000 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front approaching the Florida coast. Expect S-to-SW GALE-
FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, N of
28N between 76W and 80W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W,
to 03N27W, curving to 01N40W, crossing the Equator along 44W,
to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
02N to 05N between 38W and 43W, and from 01N to 03N between 50W
and 51W in the coastal plains of Brazil. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N southward from
38W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Florida near 28N82W, through SE Louisiana, to East Texas,
southwestward along the Texas Gulf coast, to Mexico near 26N100W,
and curving northwestward beyond 32N107W beyond the Far West of
Texas. An upper level trough is digging through northern sections
of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the
Texas coastal plains from 29N to 31N between 94W and 97W. Upper
level clouds have spread across the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW of
the line that runs from 20N97W beyond 27N82W.

A developing low pressure center in SE Texas will track eastward
along the U.S.A. Gulf of Mexico coast this weekend. Strong to
near gale southerly winds will be ahead of a trailing cold front,
mainly N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front from
Saturday night through Sunday night. GALE-FORCE winds will be
possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will
shift E of the Gulf waters on Sunday night. Surface high pressure
will build in its wake. It is possible that a reinforcing cold
front may move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next
week. It is possible that another cold front may enter the far NW
Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough,
covers the area from 15N southward from the Windward Passage
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that
is from 15N northward from the Windward Passage westward. An upper
level trough cuts across Puerto Rico toward 14N72W.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...are 0.47 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia
beyond southern sections of Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible
from 11N southward from 75W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night, pulsing to near GALE-FORCE
off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into
the Yucatan Channel on Sunday afternoon, reaching from near the
Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tuesday
night, where it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday. Fresh
to strong winds behind the front will affect the waters off the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Honduras from Monday night through
Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 28N60W to 24N70W,
curving across the central Bahamas, and to the coast of Cuba near
22N77W. A surface trough is within 180 nm to 240 nm to the ESE
of the stationary front. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through
32N46W to 27N54W to 22N71W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near . Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward
between Africa and 35W. A surface trough is along 25N29W 21N31W
18N31W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N northward
between 19W and 32W.

The current stationary front will linger tonight, and then
dissipate on Saturday. Another stationary front, from 31N76W to
near Cape Canaveral, Florida will move N as a warm front by
Saturday night. A developing low pressure center in the southern
U.S.A. will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern
Florida on Sunday morning. GALE-FORCE wind conditions are
possible N of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow through
Monday. It is possible another low pressure center may develop
off the Carolinas on Monday night, potentially and significantly
impacting the waters N of Grand Bahama through the middle of the
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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