[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
519 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 04N30W to
03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 08W-21W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 48W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from S Louisiana near 29N91W to
S of Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. The front is presently void of
convection. 5 to 25 kt southerly winds are E of the front with
strongest winds over the NE Gulf. N Florida has scattered moderate
convection N of 30N, moving NE. Upper level diffluence is
enhancing this convection.

The front will eventually merge with a reinforcing cold front
that will enter the NW Gulf Tuesday. The merged front will reach
the SE Gulf by Wed morning. Strong high pressure building
southward behind the merged front will generate strong winds. SREF
and GEFS guidance both suggest these winds could reach gale force
near Veracruz Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of scattered showers
are moving E with the tradewind flow, mainly E of 80W.

In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
Honduras. Anticyclonic upper level winds are W of 70W. The NW
Caribbean has upper level moisture, while the remainder of the Sea
is under very strong subsidence.

High pressure over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday.
Fresh to strong nocturnal winds along the coast of Colombia will
pulse to near gale speeds Mon night. Fresh to strong nocturnal E
to SE winds will continue over the Gulf of Honduras through Monday
night. The coverage of strong winds along the coast of Colombia
will shrink to along the immediate coast on Tue and Wed as a cold
front moving E from the united States mainland weakens the ridge
to the N of the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of Georgia N of 31N and W of 79W. Scattered showers are
over the N Bahamas. 20-25 southerly flow is over the W Atlantic
N of 27N and W of 75W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W
Atlantic near 29N62W. A dissipating stationary front is over the
central Atlantic from 32N36W to 23N50W to 21N66W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1025 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 33N18W. A surface ridge axis extends SW
from this high to 25N38W.

High pressure centered near 29N62W will drift E into the central
Atlantic by Wed. Strong S to SW winds will affect the waters N of
29N and W of 73W today as a slow moving cold front approaches the
Georgia coast. A reinforcing cold front will push the front SE to
extend from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral by Tuesday afternoon, and
from 31N67W to near Andros Island on Wednesday morning. Strong
winds ahead of the front will affect the waters N of 30N Tue. The
front will continue heading SE and weaken and extend from 26N65W
to SE Cuba near 21N75W by Thu night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net