[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Sierra Leone
near 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 04N30W to 03N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 03N-05N between 12W-16W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 17W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from S Louisiana near 29N91W to Tampico
Mexico near 22N98W. The front is presently void of convection. 5
to 25 kt southerly winds are E of the front with strongest winds
over the NE Gulf. N Florida has scattered moderate convection N
of 30N, moving NE. Upper level diffluence is enhancing this
convection.

The front will become stationary tonight. The front will merge
with a reinforcing cold front on Tuesday, and reach south Florida
on Wednesday. Strong high pressure building southward behind the
front will induce strong northerly winds to the west of the
reinforcing front, with near-gale force winds near Veracruz on
Tuesday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of scattered showers
are moving E with the tradewind flow, mainly E of 80W.

In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
Honduras. Anticyclonic upper level winds are W of 70W. The NW
Caribbean has upper level moisture, while the remainder of the Sea
is under very strong subsidence.

High pressure over the western Atlc will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday.
Fresh to strong nocturnal winds along the coast of Colombia will
pulse to near gale tonight. Fresh to strong nocturnal E to SE
winds will continue over the Gulf of Honduras through Monday
morning.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the NW Atlantic N of 25N and W of 70W.
20-25 southerly flow is over this area. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the W Atlantic near 30N67W. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 32N36W to 25N47W. A stationary front continues to
22N56W. A dissipating stationary front continues further to
21N63W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of
the cold front. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
remainder of the front. a 1026 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 33N18W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this
high to 25N40W.

High pressure centered near 30N67W will drift eastward through
Sunday. Southerly winds will strengthen W of 75W later tonight and
Sun ahead of a cold front expected to push off the Georgia coast
on Mon. The front will extend from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral on
Tuesday, and from 31N67W to Andros Island on Wednesday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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