[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Aug 31 04:42:21 CDT 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 310942
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, at 31/0900 UTC, is
near 13.6N 21.4W, or 350 km to the ESE of the southernmost Cabo
Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The low center is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 10 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 21W and
27W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N
to 16N between 19W and 22W. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 14N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm
to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been re-positioned, based on
upper air data. The position extends from 20N67W, through the Mona
Passage, to 16N69W, to the Peninsula de la Guajira in NE Colombia.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward between the Mona Passage and 73W.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 19N southward. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are in the central part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, through the 1007 mb low pressure center that has the
potential to develop into a tropical cyclone, to 11N30W, and to
08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 07N53W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N
between 30W and 37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
to the south of the line 17N20W 16N26W 13N37W 10N57W 13N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small area of an upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
SE Louisiana/the north central Gulf of Mexico. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is in interior Mexico, in the center
part of the country, from 20N northward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 24N to 27N between 92W and 96W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N southward from
90W eastward, in an area of upper level diffluent wind flow.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the northernmost part of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N
northward.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend
and support gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will
develop each evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and
offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours.
A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this
trough each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the Windward Passage. Isolated
moderate rainshowers span the areas from Hispaniola to the SE
Bahamas and SE Cuba.

An upper level trough is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N to
23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. The 24-hour
rainfall total, that is listed for the period that ended at
31/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, is 1.71 in
Guadeloupe.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N/10N from 73W in Colombia beyond western Costa Rica. Scattered
strong rainshowers are from 09N to 10N between 72W and 74W in
parts of Venezuela and Colombia. An area of scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers is just to the north of Panama from 10N to 11N
between 80W and 81W.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south
central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave, currently
approaching Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean
Sea by late Sunday into early Monday, and the wave will be
accompanied by active weather. A second tropical wave will pass
to the west of 55W on Saturday, into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Saturday night, and into the central Caribbean Sea early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N48W cyclonic circulation
center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near
31N57W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near
26N61W, to 24N65W. A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is
along 32N40W to 21N46W. An upper level trough is along 75W/76W,
from SE Cuba/the Windward Passage to 33N, about 250 nm to the east
of the SE U.S.A. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that passes through 32N40W to 24N50W to 20N60W.

Surface high pressure will remain centered SW to W of Bermuda
through the forecast period. A tropical wave, moving across the E
Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will produce
active weather as it moves westward across the waters that are to
the south of 25N and Bahamas through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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