[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, at 31/0000 UTC, is
a 1007 mb low pressure center, that is near 13.1N 20.4W, or 480 km
to the ESE of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The low center
is moving W 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25
knots with gusts to 35 knots. The government of the Cabo Verde
Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern
islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 08N-15N between 14W-27W. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 14N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from Haiti
southward to the border of Colombia and Venezuela. An upper level
trough is to the west and northwest of the tropical wave. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover parts of Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia and
Venezuela from 10N inland to the coast between 70W and 74W.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 19N southward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 11N30W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to the
coast of South America near 06N54W. Besides the convection
mentioned with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and the tropical
wave, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 44W-
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W.
Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 30N86W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is
over the N Gulf N of 23N. At the surface, a ridge extends along
30N producing 10-15 kt SE surface flow. A tropical wave is over
the Bay of Campeche. See above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N73W.
Upper level cyclonic flow covers the entire Caribbean. An area of
diffluent flow is over the NW Caribbean S of Cuba.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
10N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N between
72W-83W.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean,
before diminishing through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer
to the section above for details.

A 1022 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 32N71W. A 1026 mb
high is centered near the Azores at 36N24W. Moderate to fresh
winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of
24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola,
including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the
evening and overnight hours through the weekend. A tropical wave
over the east Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will produce
active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and
Bahamas through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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