[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis along 21W
between 03N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
observed along the wave's axis mainly near 12N, where it meets the
monsoon trough.

A low amplitude tropical wave has its axis along 39W between
06N-15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in
the vicinity of the wave south of 10N between 38W-41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis from 20N55W to
08N60W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed over the northern portion of the wave from 16N-19N
between 53W-60W, approaching the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean extending its
axis along 84W between 11N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This
wave, combined with an upper level low centered near 18N80W, is
enhancing convection south of 15N between 80W-86W, affecting
portions of Central America and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to a 1012 mb low near 08N30W to 08N41W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 10N50W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted with
the surface low between 27W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is in the NE corner of Mexico. Cyclonic flow
covers Texas and Mexico and the coastal waters from 20N northward
and from 92W westward. Isolated showers are noted in this area.
Diffluent flow aloft prevails across the eastern gulf enhancing
scattered showers east of 86W. At the surface, a ridge prevails
across the basin along 29N and anchored over the west Atlantic.

A surface trough will develop each night over the Yucatan
Peninsula, then push offshore into the Bay of Campeche with
convection. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
accompany this trough. A surface ridge will continue to dominate
the reminder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered near
18N80W. This feature is not only enhancing convection near the
tropical wave, but also supporting scattered showers over Cuba and
adjacent waters. Fair weather prevails elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will develop each night in the south
central Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave will enter the east
Caribbean during the next 24-48 hours enhancing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level low, with an inverted
trough, covers the west Atlantic from 20N northward and west of
70W. A surface trough was analyzed from 31N74W to 24N76W.
Scattered showers are noted in this area. To the east, another
surface trough was analyzed from 30N59W to 28N64W. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1026 mb high near 37N24W, and a weaker 1022 mb high near
33N70W.

Surface ridging will prevail through the forecast period. Expect
moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N
of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of
Hispaniola at night through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net