[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 20N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are noted along 10N, where the wave
meets the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was repositioned after analyzing
satellite imagery and model guidance. Its axis is along 36W from
06N-14N. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave
south of 10N between 30W-40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 20N southward.
Scattered showers are from 19N to 20N between 53W and 62W.

A tropical wave was repositioned after analyzing satellite imagery
and model guidance, as well as surface observations. Its axis is
along 82W and south of 21N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 14N between 80W-86Waffecting Central America and adjacent
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 10N24W, 08N32W, and 09N41W. The ITCZ is not
discernible. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
cover the area from 04N to 13N between 20W and 30W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 19N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level inverted trough is in the N central part of the
Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the
area. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 90W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of
Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers Texas and Mexico and the coastal
waters from 20N northward from 92W westward. isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the Gulf waters from 90W westward.

A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan
Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico. A
surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this
trough. A surface ridge will dominate the rest of the Gulf waters,
supporting gentle to moderate winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the
south of Cuba, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 16N northward from 70W westward.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper
level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. Scattered
moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from 81W westward to
land.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean
Sea through Wednesday before diminishing. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. Scattered
rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level trough extends from a 33N32W cyclonic circulation
center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near
28N44W. The trough continues to a third upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near 23N63W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N30W
to 24N50W to 18N61W.

Surface high pressure will prevail through the forecast period.
Expect moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate
winds N of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong
just N of Hispaniola at night through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT/ERA
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