[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-
10N between 25W-36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
wave axis S of 17N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from W Hispaniola to N
Colombia, along 74W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are over Haiti and N Colombia.

A Central America tropical wave is along 90W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa at 13N17W to 10N30W to
08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 08N48W. The ITCZ resumes W
of a tropical wave near 08N51W to South America near 07N58W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 36W-
41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N59W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high to E Texas producing 10 kt SE
return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the N Florida Peninsula N of 27N. a tropical
wave is approaching the E Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 15N-21N between 92W-95W.
An upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Channel near
22N86W enhancing the convection over W Cuba and the NW Caribbe

Expect, a surface high to develop over the Gulf near 27N91W on
Tue. This high will meander over the western gulf waters through
Thu. A weak trough will stalls over the eastern Gulf waters, then
drifts west and dissipates on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea and Central America.
See above. Scattered moderate convection is noted over E Cuba,
Panama, and Costa Rica. Similar convection is S of Puerto Rico
from 15N-17N between 65W-68W. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the Atlantic to the northern half of the basin
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean.

Expect showers and convection to persist over the SW Caribbean
for the next several days. Also expect strong to near gale force
nocturnal easterly trades expected along the northwest coast of
Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela through the middle of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is N of the central Bahamas from 28N70W to
23N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A
1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N59W. Another
surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N50W to 27N60W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this trough. A surface
trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N44W to 23N53W.
Scattered showers are also within 90 nm of this trough. A 1027 mb
high is centered oveer the Azores near 38N29W producing ridging
and fair weather over the E Atlantic.

Expect the trough N of the central Bahamas to move west over the
Bahamas through Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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