[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-10N between
27W-33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
wave axis S of 17N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from E Hispaniola to NW
Venezuela, along 70W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are E of the wave axis from 14N-17N between
64W-68W. Similar showers are inland over NW Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 21N southward, in
the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 10N20W, to 09N23W, and to 09N43W. The ITCZ is
along 07N46W to 06N53W, near the coast of French Guiana. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 13W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the S half of the Gulf of
Mexico due to an upper level low centered over the Yucatan
Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the N half of
the Gulf of Mexico due to an upper level high centered over S
Mississippi near 32N89W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the
north central Gulf, between the Florida Panhandle and south
central Louisiana. Isolated moderate rainshowers are along the
Florida west coast from 27N85W southward and eastward into the
Straits of Florida. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere south of
26N.

A surface ridge is along 28N/29N at 75W in the Atlantic Ocean,
crossing Florida along 28N/29N, reaching the north central Gulf
waters, and beyond the middle Texas Gulf coast.

A surface trough will develop along the western Yucatan Peninsula
during the late afternoons, and then drift westward across the
southwest Gulf waters during the overnight hours. The surface
trough will be accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind
shift. The trough will dissipate along 96W during the late
mornings. An east to west ridge will extend across the Gulf
waters between 26N and 27N accompanied by gentle to moderate
surface anticyclonic flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Channel. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward from Jamaica. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the
waters from 14N northward from 73W westward.

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 78W and 81W, around
Panama.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 74W in Colombia westward
beyond at least 88W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Strong nocturnal easterly trade winds are expected along the
northwest coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through
the middle of the week, with the strong winds expanding as far
north as 15.5N on Monday night, and with the sea heights building
to 10 feet. Strong east trade winds are forecast along the south
coast of Hispaniola tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the Florida NE coast. Scattered
showers are W of 78W. An upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 32N57W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 26N-29N between 56W-61W.

A surface trough is along 46W/47W from 20N to 29N. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the waters from 20N northward between
40W and 46W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast waters during the
next several days. A broad surface trough extending from 25N68W
to 20N71W will continue westward, passing through the Bahamas on
Monday and on Tuesday. Light to gentle winds are expected near
the trough, and moderate to fresh trades are forecast south of
23N, except becoming locally strong along the north coast of
Hispaniola during the late afternoon into the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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