[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A recent scatterometer pass provide observations of fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. High pressure
north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds
over the south central Caribbean, with strong to near gale force
winds at night, particularly in the Gulf of Venezuela and near
the coast of Colombia. Frequent gusts to gale force are also
expected to occur tonight and Sun night. As a result, a Gale
Warning has been issued. Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13
ft over the south-central Caribbean.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis along
31W from 10N to 21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This position is in
line with the long-loop satellite imagery and the model diagnostics.
Isolated showers are noted where the wave intersects the monsoon
trough near 12N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 09N to 21N. This
wave has been repositioned after analyzing 700 mb streamlines, TPW
imagery and model diagnostics. Any nearby precipitation is mostly
related to the monsoon trough/ITCZ proximity, mainly south of
10N.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles, with axis
along 62W and south of 21N, moving west 10-15 knots. A well-
defined inverted V surface pattern is apparent in satellite
imagery with this wave. A cluster of moderate convection is near
the northern end of the wave axis while isolated to scattered
showers are noted elsewhere near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, then across the southern Cabo Verde
Islands to 07N46W. The ITCZ continues from 07N46W to the coast of
Suriname near 05N55W. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic flow spans across the basin, with a
1018 mb high pressure center located near 27N90W. A broad surface
low pressure covers the SW corner of the Gulf. In this area, a
surface trough was analyzed from 25N97W to 21N96W. Scattered
showers are observed south of 25N and west of 92W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next
week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. A nocturnal trough moving off
the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE
to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered over west Hispaniola. This feature is
enhancing convection across across the Windward Passage and
adjacent waters north of 18N between 72W-80W. The monsoon trough
is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica.
Showers are possible from 13N southward and from 80W westward.

High pressure north of the area, will support fresh to strong
winds in the south central Caribbean through early next week. A
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean today with
convection. At this time, some of this activity is reaching the
Lesser Antilles. Refer to the section above for details. Wind
gusts could approach gale force on Saturday night along the coast
of Colombia/Venezuela as the pressure gradient tightens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered over
west Hispaniola, enhancing convection across the Windward Passage
and adjacent waters near the southern Bahamas. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1031 mb high centered near 36N28W.

The surface ridge will prevail north of 28N through early next
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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