[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis along
31W and south of 21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This position is
in line with the long-loop satellite imagery and the model
diagnostics. Isolated showers are noted where the wave intersects
the monsoon trough near 12N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 41W from 09N-21N. This
wave has been repositioned after analyzing 700 mb streamlines, TPW
imagery and model diagnostics. Any nearby precipitation is mostly
related to the monsoon trough/ITCZ proximity, mainly south of
10N.

A tropical wave is along 60W and south of 21N, moving west 10-15
knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is apparent in
satellite imagery with this wave. Scattered moderate convection is
from 14N-21N between 58W-61W affecting the Leeward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N39W. The ITCZ is from 09N43W to
06N54W. No significant convection is related to these boundaries
at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic flow spans across the basin, with a
1018 mb high pressure center located near 27N90W. A broad surface
low pressure covers the SW corner of the Gulf. In this area, a
surface trough was analyzed from 25N97W to 21N96W. Scattered
showers are observed south of 25N and west of 92W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next
week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. A nocturnal trough moving off
the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE
to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered over west Hispaniola. This feature is
enhancing convection across across the Windward Passage and
adjacent waters north of 18N between 72W-80W. The monsoon trough
is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica.
Showers are possible from 13N southward and from 80W westward.

High pressure north of the area, will support fresh to strong
winds in the south central Caribbean through early next week. A
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean today with
convection. At this time, some of this activity is reaching the
Lesser Antilles. Refer to the section above for details. Wind
gusts could approach gale force on Saturday night along the coast
of Colombia/Venezuela as the pressure gradient tightens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered over
west Hispaniola, enhancing convection across the Windward Passage
and adjacent waters near the southern Bahamas. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1031 mb high centered near 36N28W.

The surface ridge will prevail north of 28N through early next
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net