[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are possible from 10N to
19N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W from 19N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this
wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 18N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 14N between
64W and 69W.

A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and Central
America along 89W, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly where the
wave meets the monsoon trough along 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 13N25W just to the south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. The ITCZ continues from 13N25W to 09N36W, then
resumes near 08N40W to 07N50W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical wave along 38W, scattered showers are noted along
the ITCZ between 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated
with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east
Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from
south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of
Mexico near 24N. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350
nm south of this trough affecting most of the basin. Another
surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche along 94W with
scattered showers.

The current surface trough extending from near the Mouth of the
Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche will move slowly W, and
inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface
troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to around midnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is
noted across the island and adjacent waters north of 18N between
75W-85W. To the south, the monsoon trough extends along 10N
enhancing convection from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from
the coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the
central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday
night. Scattered rainshowers from a tropical wave will move
across the SE Caribbean Sea today, and across the central
Caribbean Sea on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
convection is in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
70W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin from a
1026 mb high pressure center that is near 35N68W.

Expect for winds to pulse to strong speeds near the northern
coast of Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds
elsewhere across the region will diminish gradually through
Saturday, as a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens and lifts
northward.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT/ERA
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