[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 19N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 20N between 45W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/66W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W.

A tropical wave is inland in Central America, from the Yucatan
Peninsula to Belize, passing through Guatemala and Honduras,
beyond El Salvador, along 88W/89W from 20N southward, moving W 10
to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N24W just to the south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. The ITCZ continues from 14N24W to 09N35W, and
07N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
from 10N to 13N between 15W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 07N27W to 09N39W to 10N48W to 08N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated
with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east
Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from
south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of
Mexico near 24N. Precipitation:

isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits
of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE
Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that
extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to
22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough,
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

The current surface trough extending from near the Mouth of the
Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche will nove slowly W, and
inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface
troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to around midnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the
coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
away from the scattered moderate to strong rainshowers that are
with the upper level trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the
central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday
night. Scattered rainshowers from a tropical wave will move
across the SE Caribbean Sea today, and across the central
Caribbean Sea on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
50W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
33N66W.

The winds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of
Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds elsewhere
across the region will diminish gradually through Saturday, as a
ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens and lifts northward.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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