[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis across the eastern Atlantic from
17N33W to 06N33W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. This wave is
depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows moderate moisture
in the wave's environment. Despite this, convection is limited to
the area near the monsoon trough as the wave prevails in an area
of Saharan dry air/dust. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N to 10N between 26W and 36W.

A tropical wave extends its axis across the central Atlantic along
48W between 06N-19W. This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt.
Abundant Saharan dry air/dust prevails in the wave's environment
inhibiting convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean, with axis along 64W
between 07N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave's axis between 61W-64W. This wave has a weak
signature in model guidance and observations.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W
between 10N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted inland over Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 20N16W to
09N29W to 08N44W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave along 33W, scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough between 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends across the Texas Gulf coast in the
NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is
associated with a stationary frontal boundary that extends along
the Texas coastline. South of this, a pre-frontal trough extends
from 29N90W to 25N92W. To the northeast, another surface trough
extends across the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers prevail
along both troughs. A thermal trough extends over the Yucatan
Peninsula enhancing convection over the Bay of Campeche.

The surface trough over the northwest Gulf will wander in the
western Gulf of Mexico through Friday, and then it will
dissipate. It is likely that showers and thunderstorms may be in
the vicinity of the trough, increasing in intensity by late
afternoon and evening. A surface trough will form each day across
the Yucatan Peninsula, and then move across the Bay of Campeche at
night. Fresh to locally strong winds will be possible in the
eastern waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to midnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves extend across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details. An upper level low is centered over Cuba
supporting scattered showers across the island and adjacent
waters, as well as west Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. To
the south, the monsoon trough is enhancing convection south of 10N
between 75W-80W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean
Sea through the weekend. The wind speeds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras each night also.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are analyzed across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low centered over Cuba
is enhancing showers across the Bahamas. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 32N61W and a 1024 mb high near 33N34W.

The current strong ridge will weaken and lift northward through
Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to strong near the northern
coast of Hispaniola at night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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