[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 10N between 25W and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 19N southward,
moving W 15 to 20 knots. Scattered rainshowers are from 07N to
10N between 40W and 50W, near the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 62W from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
09N to 14N between 60W and 63W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 21N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are from
Honduras northward from 83W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N23W. The ITCZ is along 09N33W to
09N43W then resumes near 09N46W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a
frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas,
parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the
Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the
periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast,
to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough,
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic
circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near
western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to
10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean
Sea through Sunday night. The wind speeds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras each night. Scattered rainshowers with thunder in the
tropical N Atlantic Ocean, ahead of a tropical wave, will reach
the SE Caribbean Sea tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N66W cyclonic circulation
center, to a SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center that is near
20N77W. The trough continues from SE Cuba into the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Rainshowers are possible in
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1026 mb high
pressure center that is near 33N63W.

The current strong ridge, that extends from the Azores to central
Florida, will weaken and lift northward from Thursday through
Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to strong near the northern
coast of Hispaniola at night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MT
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