[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N20W to 01N30W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection can be found from 04N-07N E of 14N
to the coast of Africa, within 90 nm N of the ITCZ axis between
20N-27N, and from 00N-03N between 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to NE
Mexico. An area of showers with embedded tstms is ahead of the
front, and is affecting mainly the SW gulf, particularly from 21N-
25N W of 94W. The front will move across the northern Gulf
through Fri, with moderate to fresh winds expected west of the
boundary. This front will then exit the southeast gulf on Sat
followed by weak high pres that will become centered over the
northwest gulf. The high pres will slide eastward to the far
north-central gulf by Sun night. A stationary front crosses the
Yucatan Channel producing scattered showers and tstms. It is
forecast to become diffuse later today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, a stationary front is over western Cuba
and the Yucatan Channel producing scattered showers and tstms. The
front is forecast to become diffuse later today. A surface trough
is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, crossing Puerto
Rico. Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers are in
the wake of the trough currently affecting the Puerto Rico and the
UK/US Virgin Islands. Moisture associated with this trough will
reach Hispaniola late today. Fresh to locally strong trade winds
will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Sat night.
Moderate trades are expected elsewhere through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0600 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N71W southwest to
the central Bahamas where it becomes stationary to western Cuba.
An area of showers and tstms is over the central Bahamas and
regional waters. This front will stall and dissipate later today.
A second weak cold front will move into the northwest waters Fri
night, reach from 31N74W to southern Florida Sat night, then
slowly dissipate by Sun morning. A stronger cold front sweeping
southward off the Carolinas will push south of 30N on Sun night,
and reach from 28N65W to the Bahamas Mon night.

Another cold front enters the forecast area near 31N43W and
continues SW to 24N50W, then W to 25N60W. Scattered showers and
tstms are along the frontal boundary N of 25N. The front is
associated with a weak 1016 mb low pressure that has move into the
forecast waters since yesterday. This low is forecast to dissipate
in about 24 hours. The remainder of the Atantic Ocean is under
the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure located just SW of the
Azores near 36N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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