[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, and continues to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N19W, to the Equator along 30W, to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N
between 14W-18W, from 00N-03N between 20W-30W, and within about
150 nm N of the ITCZ axis W of 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Fort Myers west to
near 27N90W. Fresh to locally strong easterly flow continues
north of the front over the NE Gulf. The remnants of the
stationary front will lift back to the north as a warm front
early this morning as a cold front moves across the NW Gulf.
The cold front will be preceded by scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some of which can produce strong gusty winds. In
fact, some of the buoys across the NW Gulf are now reporting
sustained winds in the 20-25 kt range. The cold front will reach
from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight, from
the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then
slow somewhat on Tue passing across the Straits of Florida Tue
night. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate NW winds
and relatively low seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades across the south-central Caribbean and along the southern
coast of Hispaniola through early this afternoon . Strong
nocturnal trades are then expected to resume tonight along the
north coast of the South America. A weakening cold front will
move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and
wash out across the NW Caribbean by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W, then
continues SW to near 27N68W where it becomes stationary. The
remnants of the stationary front  will lift northward today with
near gale force southeast flow developing across the forecast
waters north of the Bahamas on Mon and Mon night in association
with a surface low that will move eastward across the
southeastern United States. Presently, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are rapidly developing along and near the
stationary front west of about 65W as a rather broad mid to
upper level trough over the western Atlantic provides additional
instability in the vicinity of the stationary frontal boundary.
This convective activity is affecting the NW Bahamas and south-
central Florida, and is expected to continue through this
afternoon, before it lifts to the northwest part of the area
tonight through Mon in response to a warm frontal boundary that
develops there ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The
remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1031 mb
high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N35W. A 1009 mb
low pressure situated NE of the Madeira Islands near is
generating some showers ans tstms activity.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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