[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, curving to 04N16W and 02N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N19W, to the Equator along 30W, to 45W from the Equator to
01S. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 05N southward from 14W westward, and from 08N
southward elsewhere westward to 60W. scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are from 01N to 02.5N from 04W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the
eastern coast of Florida near 27N80W, to 26N87W, and 26N89W.
The remainder of the stationary front, that part that is in the
western Gulf of Mexico, is dissipating along 26N89W beyond 29N95W,
and inland at the coast of Texas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow,
with a trough, is moving through the eastern sections of Texas.
Upper level NW wind flow moves from Texas, through the Gulf of
Mexico, and then beyond it, into the NW part of Costa Rica. The
NW wind flow is on the western side of an upper level trough,
whose cyclonic wind flow eventually covers parts of the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, much of the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean
from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover parts of the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, and between 84W and 90W.

A cold front will reach the Texas coast early on Sunday, preceded
by a pre-frontal squall line. The cold front will reach from the
Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from
the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night,
and then slow down in its forward speed somewhat on Tuesday
passing across the Straits of Florida on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough cuts across NW Cuba into the NW sections of
Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N
southward from 74W westward. Earlier rainshowers that were
covering the coastal areas and some inland areas of Colombia and
NW Venezuela, have weakened and dissipated for the moment.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia and
Venezuela, from 06N to 10N in Lake Maracaibo, 70W and 75W.
The Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from Jamaica and 18N
northward, from 52W westward in the Atlantic Ocean is covered by
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow of the NW Cuba-to-Costa
Rica trough.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-locally
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea, and
along the southern coast of Hispaniola, through early Sunday.
Strong nocturnal trade winds are expected to resume on Sunday
night along the north coast of the South America. A weakening cold
front will pass southeastward through the Yucatan Basin on
Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea during the
middle of the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N56W, to 29N63W, to 27N70W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from 27N70W, to 28N78W,
and then across Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, and
into the Gulf of Mexico. The Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean,
from Jamaica and 18N northward, from 52W westward in the Atlantic
Ocean is covered by isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers, that are in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind
flow of the NW Cuba-to-Costa Rica trough.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N13W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 30W eastward. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near
35N13W. A frontal boundary is inland in northern sections of
Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N42W.
Weak cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 40W and 51W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current frontal boundary will lift northward on Sunday. Near-
gale force SE wind flow is forecast to develop across the
forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday, in association
with a surface low pressure center that will be shifting eastward
across the southeast United States. The surface low will move
northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Tuesday, and drag a a couple of weak cold fronts across the
northwest waters during the middle of the next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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