[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Winds reaching minimal gale force winds are ongoing along the
coast of Veracruz Mexico following a late season cold front
extending from near Mobile Bay to the southwest Gulf near
18.5N93W. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed seas are
reaching 13 ft in the area of gale force winds. The gale force
winds will diminish early this morning as high pressure builds
over the western Gulf in the wake of the front.

For more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
02N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 190 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
axis between 17W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for more information on
gale force winds in the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong winds follow a late season cold front extending from
Mobile Bay to the southwest Gulf near 18.5N93W. A line of showers
and thunderstorms is ahead of the front north of 25N, moving
eastward across the northeast Gulf. Seas of 10 to 15 ft are noted
over the western Gulf in the wake of the front supporting by
strong northerly winds. The exception is over the fetch limited
far northwest Gulf where seas are 3 to 5 ft over coastal waters
and 5 to 7 ft farther offshore.

The front sweeps southeast of the Gulf through tonight. Winds and
seas diminish into Mon as high pressure builds across the basin
and persists through mid week. Fresh to strong SE return flow will
set up over the northwest Gulf by late Tue between the ridge and
lower pressure over the southern Plains. A weaker cold front is
forecast to stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are ongoing over the northeast and
south central Caribbean ahead of a late season cold front moving
through the Gulf of Mexico. Recent scatterometer passes indicate
fresh to strong E to SE winds off northeast Colombia and near the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas over the south central Caribbean are
likely 8 to 10 ft, with 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. A recent altimeter
satellite pass showed NE to E swell over the tropical Atlantic
has largely decayed below 8 ft. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

The cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late today, and stall
from central Cuba to central Honduras by early Mon, before
dissipating through late Tue. The strong E to SE winds off
Honduras will diminish as the ridge north of the area shifts
eastward ahead of the front. But strong NW winds will follow the
front from the coast of Quintana Roo to the Gulf of Honduras,
before diminishing Mon. Elsewhere, the fresh to strong trade
winds will continue to pulse near the coast over the south
central Caribbean through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure northeast of the area is supporting pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola, as noted in recent
scatterometer imagery and ship observations. The strong winds are
noted mainly along the northern coast of Haiti as far west as the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Recent buoy and altimeter
data show seas of 8 to 9 ft south of 22N and east of the Turks
and Caicos.

SE to S winds are starting to increase to fresh to strong W of
75W ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast late this afternoon, then increase to minimal gale
force west and east of the front north of 30N tonight. Winds will
diminish Mon as the front moves east and reaches from 30N72W to
central Cuba Mon evening, and from Bermuda to eastern Cuba late
Tue, then lifting north to 25N and dissipating through mid week.

Farther east, 1030 mb high pressure is centered near 32N57W, north
of a stationary front reaching from 32N35W to 28N55W. The ridge is
maintaining light winds north of 20N, with moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 20N. NE to E swell of 7 to 9 ft persists
south of 20N as well, as noted in recent altimeter satellite
passes, reaching as far west as the Windward Islands.

The front will dissipate today, and the ridge will shift east
Mon ahead of a stronger reinforcing front moving into the region
Tue. The front will slide east of 35W Wed, followed by a large
area of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 10 ft covering much of
the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed and Thu as the swell in
excess of 8 ft south of 20N will subsides.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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