[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front is about midway on its SE trek across the
Gulf of Mexico. High pressure building behind the front is
supporting gale-force winds S of 21N W of 95W, and strong to near
gale-force winds elsewhere behind the front. Seas of 10 to 15 ft
cover the Gulf south of 27N and W of the front as confirmed by
buoys 42002 and 42055. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
later this morning as the front shifts farther eastward and the
high pressure builds into the western Gulf. For more details
please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

The aforementioned cold front will approach the southeastern
United States Sunday, with increasing southerly flow ahead of the
front over the Bahamas and offshore waters east of Florida. The
front will reach the Atlantic waters Sunday night, with gale
force winds developing north of 30N between 76W and 78W as the
front moves east. The winds will then diminish below gale force
through early Monday. For more details please refer to the High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to
02N30W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within
120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 15W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends from 30N89W to 25N92W to 18N94W.
Numerous moderate convection with thunderstorms are within 180 nm
E of the front N of 26N. Scattered thunderstorms are also
beginning to develop along a surface trough that is well ahead of
the front, with the trough axis extending from 25N88W to 17N91W.
Recent scatterometer data indicates mainly fresh to locally strong
SE winds preceding this front. Gale force northerly winds are
occurring W of the front S of 21N. Please refer to the special
features section for more details. Strong to near gale-force
northerly winds are occurring elsewhere behind the front.

The cold front will continue to move SE across the Gulf through
Sunday night, moving SE of the area on Monday, with the winds and
seas behind the front gradually diminishing. High pressure will
build over the northern Gulf early next week and will become
centered over the NE Gulf by Tue. This will result in fresh to
strong return flow developing over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging north of the region is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds over the Gulf of Honduras and much of the central Caribbean.
Mainly moderate to fresh trades are occurring elsewhere. The
ridge will persist into Sunday night over the western Atlantic,
which will allow these conditions to prevail through that time.
The ridge will shift east on Monday, which will cause the stronger
winds to become confined mainly to the NE coast of Colombia until
the middle of the upcoming week.

A cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW
Caribbean Sunday night, and will then reach from eastern Cuba to
Honduras Monday night before dissipating. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds are expected behind the front before the front
dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds cover the western
Atlantic this morning as high pressure of 1031 mb centered near
33N57W dominates the region. SE to S winds will increase to fresh
to strong W of 75W later this morning ahead of a cold front
crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds will then increase
to strong to near gale force ahead of the front this afternoon as
the front reaches the Florida peninsula. Winds to gale force are
possible Sun night north of 30N between 76W and 78W as the front
moves through the region. Please refer to the special features
section for more details on this gale. The front will reach from
31N75W to south Florida before daybreak Monday, then from 31N70W
to central Cuba by Mon night. Winds will diminish through late
Tuesday as the southern portion of the front begins to stall out
as it reaches from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas. High pressure
will build along 28N in the wake of the front as the front weakens
from 31N60W to the southern Bahamas Wednesday, maintaining
generally light winds and modest seas north of 25N, and moderate
trades south of 25N, with pulses of fresh to strong trades off
Hispaniola.

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N48W to 26N63W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of either side of the front E
of 55W. This front will gradually dissipate through tonight.

Farther east, a 1028 mb high centered near 28N43W is maintaining
light winds north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south
of 20N. NE to E swell of 7 to 9 ft persists south of 20N as well,
as noted in recent altimeter satellite passes, reaching as far
west as the Windward Islands. For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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