[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of west
Africa near 08N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues SW from 03N22W
to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 04S42W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 03S to 00N between
34W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 60 nm
either side of a line from 01N16W to 05N21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from N of Tampa Florida near 28N83W to
28N86W to just S of Brownsville TX near 25N98W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along and up
to 90 nm N of the the frontal boundary east of 89W. Otherwise,
warm air overrunning the boundary is producing extensive
cloudiness and patchy rain north of the front. Fresh NE winds are
observed N of the front and E of 93W, while winds are fresh to
strong N of the front and W of 93W. Gentle to locally moderate E
to SE winds prevail over the basin S of the front.

The front will remain quasi-stationary over the northern Gulf for
a little while longer this morning. A secondary push of cold air
will cause the front to head SE as a cold front later today. The
energized front will exit the SE Gulf Wed night, then begin to
dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu night. Winds N of
the front will subside to light to moderate and veer from the SE
as high pres shifts E over the southern United states over the
western Atlc.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. A fairly dry
weather pattern remains in place. Mid to upper-level ridging
extending northwestward over the basin from South America is
maintaining the dry weather pattern with strong subsidence noted
over the eastern Caribbean.

Low pressure systems moving eastward from the southern U.S. into
the western Atlantic continue to weaken the ridge north of the
area. Strong winds and seas running between 7 and 10 ft are
observed near the coast of northern Colombia as relatively strong
low pres inland maintains a tight pres gradient along the coast.
The area of low pres inland will weaken during the next couple of
days and allow the winds and seas to subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends SW from 32N54W to 28N62W. This
boundary resumes as a warm front from 29N66W and continues NW to
low pres 1013 mb centered near 33N73W. A cold front heads SW from
the low to Ft Pierce Florida near 27.5N80W. No significant
convection is seen in the vicinity of the weakening cold front.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and up to 90 nm N
of the warm front, while scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is taking place along and N of the cold front to beyond
32N. Elsewhere, a large 1033 mb high centered over the eastern
Atlantic SW of the Azores near 33N32W dominates the remainder of
the Atlc. The ridge will maintain fair weather and moderate to
fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc north of the ITCZ and W
of 30W.

The low east of the Carolinas will head ENE today, and drag a
cold front across Florida. The cold front will extend from 31N72W
to South Florida Wed morning, then dissipate across the Straits
of Florida by Thu night. The front will be preceded by fresh to
strong SW winds and seas building to between 8 and 10 ft. Winds
and seas will subside by Thu night as the front weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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