[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
west Africa near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues SW from
04N20W, crossing the equator at 26W. No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W to
Brownsville TX. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the frontal boundary east of 85W. Warm air overrunning the
boundary is producing extensive cloudiness and patchy rain north
of the front in the NW Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail across most of the basin.

The front will remain quasi-stationary over the northern Gulf
overnight. A secondary push of cold air will cause the front to
head SE as a cold front later today. The energized front will
exit the SE Gulf Wed night, then begin to dissipate across the
Straits of Florida by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. A fairly
dry weather pattern remains in place, with upper level ridging
extending northwestward over the basin from South America with
strong subsidence noted across the eastern Caribbean.

Low pressure systems moving eastward from the southern U.S. into
the western Atlantic continue to weaken the ridge north of the
area. Highest seas are 5 to 8 ft are near the coast of Colombia,
and only subtle changes in the prevailing weather pattern are
expected during the next several days. Seas will briefly build
to 8-10 ft near the coast of Colombia this morning as the ridge
to the N builds slightly and low pres over S America deepens. A
weaker pres gradient will become reestablished Wed and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N57W to 29N61W, then stationary
to 26N71W. This boundary then becomes a warm front SE of a 1010
mb low off the Carolinas at 32N75W. A cold front extends SW of
the low to the Florida coast near Fort Pierce. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the cold
front, but no deep convection is associated with the frontal
boundary between 57W and 73W. Elsewhere, a large 1034 mb high
centered over the eastern Atlantic SW of the Azores near 35N32W
dominates the remainder of the area. The ridge will allow fair
weather along with moderate to fresh trade winds to prevail in
the tropical Atlc north of the ITCZ and W of 30W.

The low east of the Carolinas will move E-NE today, and drag a
cold front into Florida. The cold front will extend from 31N72W
to South Florida Wed morning, then dissipate across the Straits
of Florida by Thu night. The front will be preceded by fresh to
strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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