[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of west
Africa near 08N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues SW from 02N20W,
crossing the equator near 25W. Scattered moderate convection is
south of 03N between 17W and 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the big bend of Florida to NE
Mexico near 25N97W. Warm air overrunning the boundary is
producing extensive cloudiness and patchy rain north of the front
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across
most of the basin.

The front will remain quasi-stationary over the northern Gulf
tonight. A secondary push of cold air will cause the front to
head SE as a cold front on Tuesday. The energized front will exit
the SE Gulf Wed night and begin to dissipate near the Straits of
Florida by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds continues across the basin. A
relatively dry weather pattern is currently in place with upper
level ridging extending northwestward over the basin from South
America with strong subsidence noted over the eastern Caribbean.

Low pres systems moving eastward from the southern U.S. into the
western Atlc continue to weaken the ridge to the N of the area.
Seas are around 5-8 ft are near the coast of Colombia, and only
subtle changes in the weather pattern are expected during the next
several days. Seas will briefly build to around 10 ft near the
coast of Colombia early Tue as the ridge to the N builds slightly
and low pres over S America deepens. A weaker pres gradient will
become reestablished Wed and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N58W to 27N65W, then stationary to
27N75W and transitions to a warm front SE of a 1014 mb low off the
coast of S Carolina near 32N78W. Cloudiness and patchy rain are
observed N of the front. Scattered showers and isolated t-storms
are concentrated E of Florida and Georgia from 28N to 32N west of
73W. Elsewhere, a large 1034 mb high centered over the northeast
Atlantic SW of the Azores near 35N32W dominates the remainder of
the area. Fair weather along with moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail in the tropical Atlc north of the ITCZ and W of 30W.

The low of South Carolina will move E-NE on Tue and drag a cold
front across Florida. The cold front will extend from 31N72W to
South Florida Wed morning, then dissipate across the Straits of
Florida by Thu night. Both fronts will be preceded by fresh to
strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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