[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of west
Africa near 08N12W to 05N15W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from
02N20W to 03S32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N to
06N between 15W and 18W and within an area bounded by 03S21W to
08S32W to 00N47W to 02N22W to 03S21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary undulates WSW from N of Tampa Florida near
28N83W to just SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi near 29N89W to
26N92W to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. The front has shifted
northward over the western Gulf and currently possesses no
associated deep convection. Warm air overrunning the boundary is
producing extensive cloudiness and patchy rain north of the front.
Gentle to locally moderate winds generally prevail across the
basin.

The front will remain over the northern Gulf today. A secondary
push of cold air will combine with low pressure along the frontal
boundary over the NE Gulf to cause the front to begin heading SE
as a cold front tonight through Tue night. The front is forecast
to finally exit the SE Gulf by Wed night and begin to dissipate
near the Straits of Florida by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over the basin. A
relatively dry weather pattern is currently in place and mid to
upper-level ridging extends northwestward over the basin from
South America with strong subsidence noted over the eastern
Caribbean.

Low pres systems moving E from the United states mainland over
the western Atlc continue to weaken the ridge to the N of the
Caribbean. As a result, trade-wind flow over the basin remains
lighter than normal. Consequently, seas are running fairly low
across the area. The highest seas of around 5-8 ft are occurring
near the coast of Colombia where low pres over S America tightens
the pres gradient. Only subtle changes in the weather pattern are
expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to
the north remains relatively weak. Seas will briefly build to
around 10 ft near the coast of Colombia early on Tue as the ridge
to the N builds slightly and low pres over S America deepens. The
weaker pres gradient will become reestablished Wed and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area over the W Atlantic near
32N60W, curves SW to 26N69W and 27N75W, then continues as a
stationary boundary to Cape Canaveral Florida near 28.5N81W.
Cloudiness and patchy rain are generally seen N of the front and W
of 71W. However, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
concentrated E of Florida and Georgia between 29N and 31N between
75W and 78W. Elsewhere, a large 1035 mb high centered over the
northeast Atlantic SW of the Azores near 35N30W dominates the
remainder of the area. Fair weather along with moderate to fresh
trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic north of the
ITCZ and west of 30W.

The western portion of the W Atlantic front is forecast to lift
back to the N as a warm front this afternoon or evening and link
up with a developing low pressure system just off the South
Carolina coast. The low will move E-NE Tue and drag a cold front
across Florida. The cold front will then extend from 31N72W to
South Florida by Wed morning, and dissipate across the Straits of
Florida by Thu night. Both fronts will be preceded by fresh to
strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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