[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea on the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N23W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries between 15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the N Gulf States
between Alabama and E Texas due to an inland cold front. High
pressure located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across the
Gulf of Mexico from Florida to SRN Texas and NERN Mexico,
producing little cloudiness S of 28N. Moderate to occasionally
fresh E to SE winds will gradually build to between 4 and 5 ft
over the NW Gulf. Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4 foot
range. Winds will slowly veer from the SE and S across the region
through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to
enter the NW Gulf this evening. The front will continue to move
SE then stall from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 kt tradewinds dominates the Caribbean Sea with mostly fair
weather. Mid to upper-level ridging extending northward over the
basin from South America is promoting a generally dry weather
pattern. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where
scattered showers are over the higher terrain. Shower coverage is
expected to decrease during the next couple of days. Tradewind
flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure
systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to
the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low
across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring
near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern
is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge
to the north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N59W to
28N67W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the front N of 30N.
A weak surface trough is located over the S Bahamas from 25N72W
to 21N73W. No significant convection is currently associated with
this trough. Farther east, a cold front is producing a narrow
band of clouds and a few showers over the Canary Islands from
31N09W to 28N14W. Otherwise, a large 1028 mb high pressure system
is located over the central Atlantic near 34N36W. Fair weather
and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N
of the ITCZ and W of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as
the high pressure builds S and SWD over most of the area. The
next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic
waters tonight, and reach 32N62W Sun night, and 32N55W Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/Formosa
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