[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between
15W-26W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02S-03N
between 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the N Gulf States
between Alabama and E Texas due to an inland cold front. Broken
to overcast low clouds are over the N Gulf N of 28N. High pressure
located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across the Gulf of
Mexico from Florida to SRN Texas and NERN Mexico, producing little
cloudiness S of 28N. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds
will gradually build to between 4 and 5 ft over the NW Gulf.
Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4 foot range. Winds will
slowly veer from the SE and S across the region through Saturday
ahead of the next cold front, which is due to enter the NW Gulf
Sat evening. The front will continue to move SE then stall from S
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 kt tradewinds dominates the Caribbean Sea with mostly fair
weather. Mid to upper-level ridging extending northward over the
basin from South America is promoting a generally dry weather
pattern. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where
scattered showers are over the higher terrain. Shower coverage is
expected to decrease during the next couple of days. Tradewind
flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure
systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to
the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low
across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring
near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern
is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge
to the north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion area near 32N57W, and
extends southwestward to 26N70W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the front N of 29N. A weak surface trough is
located over the S Bahamas from 25N72W to 21N73W. No significant
convection is currently associated with this trough. Farther east,
a weakening cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds and a
few showers over the Canary Islands from 32N09W to 27N16W.
Otherwise, a large 1029 mb high pressure system is located over
the central Atlantic near 35N36W. Fair weather and moderate trade
winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and W
of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the high pressure
builds S and SWD over most of the area. The next cold front is
expected to enter the far western Atlantic waters Sat night, and
reach 32N62W Sun night, and 32N55W Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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