[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to
02N20W to 02S37W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 01S to 01N
between 10W and 13W, from 04N to 06N between 13W and 17W and
along the coast of Brazil from 02S to 02N between 30W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Pensacola Florida to the NW Gulf
of Mexico near 26N95W to N of Tampico Mexico near 24N98W.
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a prefrontal
trough stretches from the Florida Big Bend near 28N83W to 26N86W
to 25N89W. The trough has begun to weaken and currently possesses
no significant deep convection. Cloudiness and patchy rain are
occurring along and N of the front to the W of 88W. Satellite-
derived wind data show 20 to 30 kt N winds to the N of the front.
The remainder of the Gulf S of the front and prefrontal trough is
experiencing light to moderate E to SE return flow and fair
weather.

The cold front will stall over the northern Gulf tonight.
Convection is expected to remain confined N of 26N and taper off
after tonight. High pressure will build over the SE United States
on Thu, then shift E over the western Atlc on Fri. Light to
moderate E winds Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak
surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche at night. Otherwise,
a generally dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place
through the end of the week and mid to upper-level ridging slowly
builds over the basin from the W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough has shifted to the NE of the
Caribbean. This is allowing broad mid to upper-level ridging to
build over the area from the W. As a result, the weather over the
Caribbean will remain relatively dry for the next several days.

The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the area will be
weakened during the next several days by low pres systems moving
E from the United States. This will keep wind speeds over the
basin relatively low in the light to moderate range. Winds will be
moderate to fresh over the south central Caribbean, except
locally strong along the northern Coast of Colombia during the
late night and early morning hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high centered over the NW Atlantic near 41N49W ridges
WSW from the high over the Bahamas. A surface ridge curves ESE
from this high to another 1021 mb high centered over the E
Atlantic just N of the Canary Islands near 33N19W. Both of these
systems will combine to maintain moderate to fresh trade winds
and mostly fair weather over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ
and west of 25W through Fri. A cold front will enter the western
Atlantic tonight and move into the central Atlantic on Fri. The
southern portion of the front will stall and weaken over the
northern Bahamas during this time frame.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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