[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041649
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 PM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00S30W to Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
01N-04N between 06W-12W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of Brazil from 04S-03N between 34W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to
the NW Gulf of Mexico to beyond Brownsville Texas. Radar imagery
shows a prefrontal trough from 30N84W to 27N93W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. 20-30 kt N
winds are reported behind the front. The remainder of the Gulf
S of the front and trough has 10 kt southerly return flow with
fair weather.

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 33N61W WSW to
Tampa Florida to the central Gulf. The Gulf front will stall over
the northern Gulf tonight. Convection is expected to be confined
N of 26N and taper off after tonight. High pressure will build
over the SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the western
Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from the SE
on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop over the
Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay of
Campeche at night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern is
expected to remain in place through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Presently, scattered moderate convection is over portions of NW
Venezuela and N Colombia. A sharp upper-level trough is over the
north central Caribbean with upper-level divergence noted over the
Windward Islands. Scattered to broken high clouds are over the
Windward Islands.

The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the of the area will
be weakened by low pres moving E from the United States. This will
keep wind speeds over the basin relatively low in the light to
moderate range. Winds will be moderate to fresh over the south
central Caribbean, except locally strong along the northern Coast
of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mostly
dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next
couple days as a subsident air mass associated with ridging to
the W of the upper level trough moves E over the basin. The upper-
level ridge will then dominate the weather through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N61W. A
ridge axis extends WSW from the high to central Florida near 28N.
A surface ridge extends E from this high to another 1022 mb high
over the E Atlantic near 34N19W. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and mostly fair weather will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N
of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Fri. A cold front will enter
the western Atlantic tonight and move into the central Atlantic on
Fri. The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken over
the northern Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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