[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 14/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 450 nm SSW
of Bermuda near 24.9N 66.6W, moving W at 6 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N
to 26N between 65W and 68W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 21N to 27N between 62W and 69W. Lighting density
data show a line of strong tstms in the NE quadrant of the storm
and also in the outer rainbands over the NE Caribbean. Some
restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Jose will
likely become a hurricane again by the weekend. Please read the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low
pressure center near 11N23w. The wave axis extends from 16N23W to
the low to 05N23W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
low vertical wind shear, deep-layer moisture and is underneath a
diffluent environment aloft that is supporting numerous moderate
convection from 09N to 12N between 22W and 25W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 07N to 15N between 20W and 30W. Some
development of this system is possible over the next few days
before upper-level winds become less favorable. There is a medium
chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the
next two days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1012 mb
low pressure center near 09N34W. The wave axis extends from 14N33W
to the low to 03N33W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of low vertical wind shear, deep-layer moisture and is
underneath a diffluent environment aloft. However, different from
the tropical wave to the east, some dry air intrusion is suggested
by the IR enhanced SAL imagery and by the TPW/LPW imagery. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 15N between 30W and
43W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N51W to 11N54W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a
region of low vertical wind shear, however water vapor imagery
show this wave is under dry subsident air, which is limiting the
convection to scattered showers within 60 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N70W to 10N72W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of low vertical wind shear, however water vapor imagery show this
wave is under dry subsident air, which is limiting the convection
to isolated showers within 60 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 14N17W
to 11N23W to 09N34W to 05N43W. The ITCZ continues from 05N43W to
04N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 44W and
58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated middle to upper level trough extends from Ohio SW
into the western half of the Gulf with a base reaching to just N
of the Bay of Campeche. This trough aloft support a 1013 mb low
centered near 27N89W and a surface trough that extends from 28N87W
to the low to 23N92W. Diffluent flow to the E of the trough along
with moisture advection from the Caribbean by SSE flow support
scattered heavy showers and tstms E of the low center from 24N to
29N between 84W and 90W. Strong dry air subsidence W of the low
support clear skies. The low over the central Gulf is forecast to
dissipate tonight. Surface ridging will then establish through
Saturday along with light to moderate SSE flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters,
however not significant convection is associated with it. Please
refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A 1011 mb
low is over Belize and the SE Yucatan Peninsula, underneath middle
level diffluent and upper level divergent flow. This scenario is
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms inland and within 90
nm off the coast. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough
reaches the NW coast of Colombia and support scattered showers and
tstms in the SW basin S of 13N. Otherwise, the outer rainbands of
Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlc support scattered
showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. Winds
across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate
range due to the weakened pressure gradient. These winds will pick
up to fresh speeds from east to west as the tropical wave moves
west.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and tstms are affecting Hispaniola due to inflow
of moist air associated with Tropical Storm Jose located in the
SW Atlc. A tropical wave is moving across the Island, thus
enhancing this convection. Shower coverage over the island will
begin to increase during the next few days as Jose continue to
move WNW N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Jose and easternmost Atlc Tropical
Wave. See tropical waves section for information on the remainder
waves. Otherwise, a cold front curves SW from 30N43W to 26N50W to
a 1016 mb low near 24N54W. Scattered convection is present along
and up to 150 nm SE of the front. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a surface ridge. The front is
forecast to dissipate tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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