[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 14/0900 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 440 nm SSW
of Bermuda near 25.1N 66.5W, moving W at 3 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. The maximum sustained winds
are now 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is present in the SE semicircle within 150 nm
and in the NW semicircle within 60 nm. Jose is expected to move
slowly and gradually turn NW through Friday night, then turn
toward the north on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving westward off the coast of Africa has an
axis extending from 14N15W to 06N21W, moving west around 15 kt.
This wave coincides with pronounced troughing in 700 mb model wind
fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a
large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N between 18W
and 25W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has an axis extending
from 17N31W to a 1012 mb low centered near 08N33W to 03N33W,
moving west at around 20 kt. This wave coincides with modest
troughing in 700 mb model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery
indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer
moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 03N to 13N between 30W and 39W.

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 18N44W to 10N53W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Troughing in
initial model 700 mb wind fields associated with this wave has
become weak and oriented from SW to NE due to interaction with a
sharp mid to upper-level trough just to the NW of the wave. TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
modest deep-layer moisture. There is no significant convection
currently associated with this wave. Previous interaction with the
tropical wave and upper-level trough has caused the development
of a surface trough extending from 30N38W to 20N43W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 24N to 27N
between 34W and 38W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending
from 18N68W to 11N71W, moving west around 5 kt. This wave
coincides with pronounced troughing in initial model 700 mb wind
fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in
modest deep-layer moisture. Only a few isolated thunderstorms just
north of the Gulf of Venezuela are currently associated with this
wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to
the south of Hurricane Jose.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from Senegal on the African coast
near 14N17W to 10N22W to low pres 1012 mb centered near 08N33W to
06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 05N43W to 08N53W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves and surface low
over the eastern Atlantic, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
seen within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N43W to 08N52W to
10N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extending westward from the Atlantic over the
northern Gulf is promoting a light to gentle wind regime over the
basin. Weak surface roughing over the Yucatan Peninsula is
expected to lose identity as the morning progresses. The only
significant deep convection present is associated with an upper-
level disturbance translating northeastward across the Gulf.
Convection associated with this upper-level feature is taking
place over the NE Gulf from 23N to 27N between 85W and 90W.
Otherwise, upper-level convergence in place over the Gulf to the
east of a pronounced mid to upper- level trough over Texas and
Mexico is inhibiting deep convection. This relatively tranquil
pattern is expected to remain in place for the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave crosses the central Caribbean from northern
Colombia to the Dominican Republic. Please refer to the tropical
waves section above for details. A weak ridge passes south of Jose
from just north of the Lesser Antilles over Hispaniola to the
northwestern Bahamas. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in
the gentle to moderate range due to the weakened pressure
gradient. These winds will pick up to fresh speeds from east to
west as the tropical wave moves west.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging
to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level
cloudiness from the outflow of Jose continues to plume overhead.
Isolated showers will affect the higher terrain during daytime
heating. Shower coverage over the island will begin to increase
during the next few days as Jose moves farther away.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the tropical wave over the basin. A cold front
curves SW from 32N45W to 26N52W to 27N56W, then continues as a
weakening stationary front to 29N62W. Scattered convection is
present along and up to 150 nm SE of the front east of 54W. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging
extending SW from a 1030 mb Azores high centered near 44N21W to
weak high pressure centered east of Jose near 22N54W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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