[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 13/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 25.5N 65.6W,
moving SE at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
985 mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present
within 180 nm in the southeastern semicircle and 90 nm in the
northwestern semicircle due to the northwesterly vertical shear
affecting the hurricane. Jose is expected to make a slow
clockwise loop during the next couple of days, moving west-
northwestward by late Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
about 03N to 13N near 19W, moving west around 20 kt. This wave is
well-defined in the 700 mb model winds and the Senegal rawindsonde
report. Visible satellite imagery and peripheral ASCAT
scatterometer winds suggest that a broad surface low in
association with the wave may be forming along the monsoon trough.
TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large
area of deep- layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis between 08N and
12N.

A tropical wave over the Caribbean has an axis extending from
about 10N to 19N near 67W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave
coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind
field and in the San Juan/Santo Domingo rawindsonde. The wave also
has a significant surface signature with SE surface winds reported
in the Lesser Antilles this morning and E to ENE winds reported by
NDBC buoy 42059 and the WINDSAT satellite winds.  TPW satellite
imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer
moisture, especially east of the wave axis. Despite this, there is
no significant convection associated with this wave, possibly due
to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to the south of
Hurricane Jose.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends W from Guinea on the African Coast
near 10N14W to 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from 07N35W to 09N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N between
34W and 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is centered over the northernmost Gulf of
Mexico this morning. Light to gentle winds are present across the
Gulf with no significant deep convection being present. This
tranquil weather pattern is expected to remain in place for the
next couple of days. It is worth noting that southern and
southeastern Mexico will see the combined impact of Pacific
Tropical Depression 16-E and the monsoon trough lifting northward.
These will produce copious amounts of rain and have the potential
for flash floods and mudslides.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from just north of the
Lesser Antilles the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical wave is
propagating through the central Caribbean, but without significant
winds or deep convection. Winds across much of the Caribbean are
in the gentle to moderate range. These winds will pick up to a
fresh breeze on the east side of the tropical wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging
to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level
cloudiness from the outflow of Jose remains in place. Shower
coverage should be isolated along the higher terrain during
daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, and the tropical waves section for
information on the tropical wave in the basin. Additionally, two
surface troughs are present: one from 13N48W to 16N45W and a
second one from 20N42W to 27N34W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 60 nm of the first trough axis and within 120
nm of the second trough axis north of 23N. The first trough should
fade in the next day or so. The second trough should gradually
move northward with scattered moderate convection, though no
tropical development is expected. Finally, a weak cold front has
entered our northern boundary from 32N45W to 30N62W. Scattered
showers are present within 60 nm of the front. Aside for these
areas, the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
ridging from a 1027 mb Azores high centered near 40N22W extending
southwestward to 23N55W. For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos/Landsea
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