[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 13/0900 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 26.1N 66.0W,
moving SE at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
985 mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is sheared
to the south of the center from 23N to 26N between 64W and 67W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen
elsewhere from 22N to 27N between 62W and 68W. Jose is still
forecast to slowly make an anticyclonic loop between the Bahamas
and Bermuda during the next several days. Please read the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
03N25W to 16N23W, moving west around 20 kt. This wave coincides
with well defined troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields.
TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large
area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 20W and 33W
and from 09N to 11N between 25W and 27W.

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
10N49W to 19N44W, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Troughing in initial
model 700 mb wind fields associated with this wave has become
weak and oriented from SW to NE due to interaction with a sharp
mid to upper-level trough stretching from 32N45W to 14N52W. TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 13N to 15N between 46W and 49W.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 16N to 21N between 39W
and 42W. Interaction by the tropical wave and upper-level trough
has resulted in the development of a surface trough extending from
20N42W to 26N36W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 23N to 26N between 35W and 39W.

A tropical wave over the Caribbean has an axis extending from
04N70W to 19N69W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides
with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. TPW
satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of
deep-layer moisture. Despite this, there is no significant
convection associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent
upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Senegal on the African Coast
near 14N16W to low pres 1011 mb centered near 09N25W to 07N37W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N37W to 09N44W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 11N between 10W
and 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A light wind regime has developed over the basin with weak
ridging residing over the Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds
and seas ranging between 2 and 4 ft generally prevail across the
Gulf. This tranquil weather pattern is expected to remain in place
for the next couple of days as seas continue to gradually
subside.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from just N of Puerto Rico
to South Florida. A tropical wave is propagating through the
eastern Caribbean. Winds across much of the Caribbean are in the
light to gentle range, with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Winds over
the eastern Caribbean are a bit stronger, in the gentle to
moderate range, due to a tighter gradient between the tropical
wave and the ridge. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over this portion
of the basin. Locally enhanced trades are expected to follow the
tropical wave as it propagates across the Caribbean waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging
to the south of jose remains in place. Shower coverage should be
limited to the higher terrain during daytime heating, with
isolated thunderstorms expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, and the tropical waves section for
information on the tropical waves over the basin. Aside for these
areas, the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
ridging extending SW from a 1026 mb Azores high centered near
39N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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