[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 11/0000 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 26.7N 81.7W
or about 15 NM ENE of Fort Myers, Florida, moving N at 12 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is now 942 mb. Irma is now
down to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds
of 90 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered to numerous strong
convection was within 210 NM in the NE semicircle and 90 NM in the
NW quadrant mainly over the Florida peninsula and the adjacent
Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. The eye of Irma has become ill
defined after landfall near Marco Island, Florida. Irma is
forecast to move along the west coast of Florida the inland over
the Florida peninsula and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
details.

At 10/2100 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 22.8N 66.9W,
or about 350 NM NW of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at
14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to
956 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 105 kt with gusts
to 125 kt. Structure-wise the eye of the storm is no longer
discernible with scattered to numerous strong convection noted
within 60 NM in the N and 120 NM in the S semicircles. Jose is
forecast to turn more toward the N tonight and Monday, then
toward the northeast Monday night, with a slower forward motion.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1011 mb low
near 11N28W. The wave axis extends from 17N28W to the low center
to 06N28W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Strong
vertical wind shear is to the E of the wave axis while low to
moderate shear is W of it. Convection has persisted over the last
6 hours due to abundant low to middle level moisture and upper
level divergent flow. Scattered strong convection and isolated
tstms are mainly in the NW quadrant of the low from 11N to 14.5N
between 26W and 31W. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could
form during the next few days while the system moves generally
northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis within 300 nm E
of the Lesser Antilles. The wave axis extends from 18N56W to
07N55W and has been moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, is in a very
moist environment that along with upper level diffluence support
scattered moderate convection and tstms from 10N to 16N between
50W and 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 11N27W to 12N32W to 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from 10N41W to
11N50W to 11N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 15N between 35W and 50W surrounding a 1012 mb low embedded in
the monosoon trough near 10N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Hurricane Irma is inland near 26.7N 81.7W or about
15 NM ENE of Fort Myers, Florida is forecast to move along or
over the W coast of Florida through tonight into Mon. Refer to the
special features section for further details on this powerful and
destructive hurricane. In the SW Gulf, abundant moisture
advecting from the Caribbean associated with Irma and upper level
divergent flow support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche S of 20N. High pressure is building into the western half
of the Gulf. Irma should move inland over northern Florida and
southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few lingering bands from Hurricane Irma are sweeping across
portions of central Cuba and weakening with time as the center of
the storm pushes further N across Florida. Very moist southerly
flow associated with Irma is over the central and western
Caribbean underneath upper level diffluent flow, which is
supporting scattered to showers and tstms across the western half
of the basin, including Hispaniola. Scattered showers were
embedded within the outer rainbands of Hurricane Jose over the
Mona Passage and Hispaniola. Fresh SSW winds associated with Irma
are moving N of Light to moderate sub-normal trade wind flow
elsewhere across the Caribbean. For more information about Irma,
see special features section. A tropical wave is forecast to move
over E Caribbean waters Monday and Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and tstms are across the Island and Windward
Passage associated with the broad cyclonic circulation surrounding
the core of major Hurricane Irma currently in the SE Gulf of
Mexico. To the east, the outer rainbands of Hurricane Jose support
similar shower activity in the Mona Passage. The areal coverage of
convection is forecast to increase by tonight through early
Monday.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section above for information
concerning Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Seas over the extreme
western north Atlantic waters are building to 12 to 17 feet as
tropical storm force winds in the NE semicircle of Irma overspread
the area. Scattered to numerous squalls accompanied the
increasing winds and seas mainly N of 25N and within 180-240 Nm
of the Florida east coast. Outside of the influence of the
tropical cyclones, a 1029 mb Azores high is centered near 42N33W
with ridging extending S to near 19N E of 55W. Two tropical waves
are also over the tropical Atlantic. See above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
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