[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
211 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 10/1800 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 25.6N 81.8W
or about 30 NM S of Naples, Florida, moving N at 10 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is down to 936 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 23N to 26N between 79W and 83W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
20N to 31N between 75W and 85W. The eye of Irma is expected to
move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later
today through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern
Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

At 10/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 21.7N 65.8W,
or about 260 NM NW of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at
14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
Numerous strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 64W to
67W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 19N to 24N between 63W and 68W. Jose will turn
toward the north tonight and Monday, then toward the northeast
Monday night, with a slower forward motion. Please read the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low
near 11N27W. The wave axis extends from 15N26W to the low center
to 06N27W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours.
Strong vertical wind shear is to the E of the wave axis while low
to moderate shear is W of it. Convection has exploded within the
last 6 hours due to abundant moisture in its low to middle level
environment and upper level divergent flow. Numerous strong
convection and isolated tstms are mainly in the NW quadrant of the
low from 11N to 14.5N between 26W and 31W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form during the next few days while
the system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis within 330 nm E
of the Lesser Antilles. The wave axis extends from 19N54W to
07N55W and has been moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, is in a very
moist environment that along with upper level diffluence support
scattered moderate convection and tstms from 10N to 16N between
50W and 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 11N27W to 12N32W to 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from 10N41W to
11N50W to 10N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between
32W and 49W surrounding a 1012 mb low embedded in the monosoon
trough near 10N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Major Hurricane Irma is near southern Naples and is
forecast to move along or over the W coast of W Florida through
tonight. Please, see the special features section for further
details on this powerful and destructive hurricane. In the SW
Gulf, abundant moisture advecting from the Caribbean associated
with Irma and upper level divergent flow support scattered showers
and tstms in the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. High pressure starts to
build elsewhere in the western half of the Gulf. Irma should move
inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday
afternoon.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The outer bands of major Hurricane Irma, now very close to the
coast of Naples, Florida support scattered to isolated heavy
showers in the western half of Cuba. Very moist southerly flow
associated with Irma is over the central and western Caribbean
underneath upper level diffluent flow, which is supporting
scattered to isolated showers and tstms across the western half of
the basin, including Hispaniola. The outer rainbands of Hurricane
Jose, however, support isolated showers across northern Puerto
Rico and the Mona Passage. Fresh to near gale force SSW winds
associated with Irma are in the NW basin, mainly over southern
Cuba adjacent waters N of 19N. Light to moderate SSE flow is
elsewhere across the Caribbean. For more information about Irma,
see special features section. A tropical wave is forecast to move
over E Caribbean waters Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and tstms are across the Island and Windward
Passage associated with the broad cyclonic circulation surrounding
the core of major Hurricane Irma currently in the SE Gulf of
Mexico. To the east, the outer rainbands of Hurricane Jose support
similar shower activity in the Mona Passage. The areal coverage of
convection is forecast to increase by tonight through early
Monday.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features section above for information
concerning major Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Seas over the extreme
western north Atlantic waters are in the 7-11 foot range as a
result of swell generated by Hurricane Irma. These seas will
increase today as Hurricane Irma is forecast to move northward
along the Florida west coast and the large wind field affects the
western Atlantic. Otherwise, a 10301 mb Azores high is centered
near 41N32W with ridging extending S to near 19N E of 60W. Two
tropical waves are also over the tropical Atlantic. See above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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