[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Irma is centered near 20.7N 70.4W at 07/1800 UTC, or
about 60 nm to the ENE of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic,
or about 60 nm to the SE of Grand Turk Island. Irma is moving WNW
at 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt.
Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the hurricane
center. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are elsewhere
within 245 nm of the center of Irma. The eye of Irma should
continue to move just north of the coast of Hispaniola today, be
near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this
evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday. Please
read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Jose is centered near 15.2N 51.4W at 07/1800 UTC, or
about 570 NM E of the Lesser Antilles. Jose is moving WNW at 16
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous
strong convection is within 90 nm of the center of Jose. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm
of the hurricane center. Strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on
Friday. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Katia is centered near 21.6N 94.6W at 07/1800 UTC, or
about 180 nm E of Tampico, Mexico, or about 165 nm NNE of
Veracruz, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980
mb. The maximum sustained wind speed 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Numerous strong convection is from 20N to 22N between 93W and 96W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and tstms are
elsewhere from 19N to 25N W of 90W. Katia is stationary and little
overall motion is anticipated through late today. However, the
hurricane is forecast to turn southwestward and approach the coast
within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Please
read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N33W to 03N34W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
low vertical wind shear, however CIRA LPW imagery show large
patches of dry air in the wave environment. Shallow moisture and
middle to upper level diffluence support isolated showers from 06N
to 14N between 32W and 40W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 11N31W to 08N40W. Aside from the convection associated with
the Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 09N E of 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Katia is over the SW Gulf of Mexico as a Category one
hurricane. The hurricane is currently stationary, however a WSW
motion is expected to begin tonight or early Friday. Katia could
become a major hurricane before landfall early Saturday. Please
read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information. Otherwise,
a broad middle to upper level trough extending from the E CONUS to
over far NW Atlc waters supports a stationary front along 28N82W
to 27N90W to 25N92W. Scattered to isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. The front will
continue to stall across the northenr Gulf through Saturday and
then will dissipate Sunday.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Irma is moving over SW N Atlc waters ENE of Puerto
Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical storm winds extend about 150
nm from the center of Irma, therefore a tropical storm warning is
in effect along southern and western Hispaniola. Irma is a pretty
compact system that is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms
across the Island and the Mona Passage. The outer rainbands of
Irma continue to affect Puerto Rico, however in a much lesser
extent. For further details on Irma, see special features. In the
SW basin, the E extension of the EPAC monsoon trough support
scattered moderate convection S of 11N between 75W and 82W.
Otherwise, trailing moisture and the proximity of Hurricane Jose
to the E support isolated showers across the Leeser Antilles.

...HISPANIOLA...

Major Hurricane Irma is moving over SW N Atlc waters ENE of Puerto
Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical storm winds extend about 150
nm from the center of Irma, therefore a tropical storm warning is
in effect along southern and western Hispaniola. Irma is a pretty
compact system that is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms
across the Island. These showers are forecast to continue through
early Friday afternoon as the center of Irma moves to NE Cuba
adjacent waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The major concern in the basin is major Hurricane Irma located
over SW N Atlc waters just NNE of the Dominican Republic, and
category two Hurricane Jose located over central Atlc waters.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for further details. In
a minor scale, a broad middle to upper level trough extends from
the E CONUS to over far NW Atlc waters and supports a cold front N
of the area that transitions to a stationary front along 30N80W
to 29N81W. The portion of the front in the SW N Atlc will stall
through Saturday and then will dissipate N of hurricane Irma.
Otherwise, the Azores high covers the remainder Atlc ocean,
generally to the N of 24N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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