[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Irma, at 07/1200 UTC is near 20.1N
69.0W, or about 90 nm to the N of Punta Cana in the Dominican
Republic, or about 150 nm to the SE of Grand Turk Island. Irma
is moving WNW, 290 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 921 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Irma is the strongest hurricane
to be in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and the
Gulf of Mexico. Irma has a well defined eye about 20 NM in
diameter. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 120
nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 75 nm to 90 nm
of the center in the W semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong elsewhere from 17N to 25N between 62W and 73W.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
details.

The center of Hurricane Jose, at 07/0900 UTC is near 14.8N
49.1W, or about 1155 NM ESE of Hurricane Irma. Jose is moving
WNW, 285 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 986 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered to
numerous strong within 150 nm of the center in the SE
semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the NW semicircle.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 10N
to 22N between 44W and 54W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

The center of Hurricane Katia, at 07/1200 UTC, is in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21.6N 94.6W, or about 175 nm E
of Tampico, Mexico, or about 165 nm NNE of Veracruz in Mexico.
Katia is stationary. The estimated minimum central pressure is
983 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 kt with gusts
to 85 kt. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 17N to 24N between 91W and 96W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico and in
interior sections of Mexico, from 25N southward between 90W and
100W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and, the
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N32W 09N34W 03N35W,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 13N between
29W and 38W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/89W from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. This wave cuts across parts
of the NE Yucatan Peninsula, through the Gulf of Honduras,
western Hondura, eastern El Salvador, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in
the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation also is in the coastal
waters of Central America from El Salvador to the western half
of Panama.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 17N16W at the coast of
Mauritania, to 13N20W, 05N30W, and to 05N36W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere
from 10N southward from 45W eastward, and from 16N southward
between 47W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Katia is in the SW corner of the area.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation are
elsewhere in the area, away from Hurricane Katia, to the NE of
the line that runs from 24N98W to 26N90W beyond 30N81W. A cold
front passes through 32N79W, off the coast of South Carolina and
Georgia, through NE Florida, to 27N90W in the Gulf of Mexico,
and 26N92W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 26N92W
to 24N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Irma is about 60 nm to the N of the Mona Passage. The
long-range forecast moves Irma just outside the islands of the
Caribbean Sea, passing to the north of and missing Hispaniola,
and Cuba. Irma is forecast to pass through the Atlantic Ocean,
but very close to and to the north of the Greater Antilles.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N80W to the
south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 75W westward. The NE corner of the Caribbean Sea is
being affected by the circulation that encompasses Hurricane
Irma.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
N Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 10N
southward between Colombia and 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hurricane Irma is forecast to be in the Atlantic Ocean, in the
northern coastal waters of Hispaniola, for the entire day today,
on Thursday. Its forecast track carries it northwestward into
the area of the SE Bahamas late on Thursday/early on Friday
morning. Irma is forecast to move between Cuba and the Bahamas
from Friday into Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Hurricane Irma, and Hurricane Jose.

An upper level trough passes through a 34N35W cyclonic
circulation center, to 27N39W, and to 19N43W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 31N northward between 30W
and 42W. Rainshowers are possible from 30N to 33N northward
between 42W and 56W. Rainshowers are possible also elsewhere
from 20N northward between 40W and 70W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that is moving around
Hurricane Irma, is merging with upper level SW wind flow that is
moving from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward, across Florida and
into the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 32N79W, off
the coast of South Carolina and Georgia, through NE Florida to
27N90W in the Gulf of Mexico, and 26N92W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong to the N of
27N80W 29N70W, beyond Bermuda.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net