[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Irma, at 06/0900 UTC is near 17.9N
62.6W, or about 30 nm to the ESE of St. Martin, and about 125 nm
to the E of St. Croix. Irma is moving WNW, 285 degrees, 14
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 kt with gusts to 195 kt.
Irma is the strongest hurricane to be in the Atlantic basin
outside of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Irma has a
well defined eye about 25 NM in diameter. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong within 120 nm of the center in
the NE and SW quadrants, within 120 nm to 180 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Jose, at 06/0900 UTC is near 12.5N
42.8W, or about 1180 NM ESE of Hurricane Irma. Jose is moving
west, 275 degrees 11 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are now
50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered
to Numerous strong is within 90 nm to 120 nm of the center in
the N semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the S
semicircle. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 39W and 45W.

The center of Tropical Storm Katia, at 06/0900 UTC, is in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 22.1N 96.3W, or about 90 nm E
of Tampico, Mexico, moving ESE, 110 degrees, 2 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 24N southward into the
northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico
between 93W and 98W at the coast of Mexico. The upper level
shear is forecast to be less and less, which combined with the
very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, should result in gradual
strengthening. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa. It
is along 20N21W, 13N24W, and 04N25W, moving W 10 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 11N to
13N between 24W and 28W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 22N78W in Cuba to
15N79W, and 08N80W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 135 nm to the south of Cuba
between 77W and 82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 20N16W at the coast of
Mauritania, to 13N20W, 10N22W, and to 08N30W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere
from 03N to 15N from 60W eastward, and in parts of E and
NE coastal Venezuela .

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Katia is in the SW corner of the area.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation are
elsewhere in the area, away from Tropical Storm Katia.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 Hurricane Irma already has entered the area of the NE
Caribbean Sea islands, in the Leeward Islands. The long-range
forecast moves Irma just outside the islands of the Caribbean
Sea, from the NE corner, in a northwestward direction, just
missing Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Irma is forecast to
pass through the Atlantic Ocean, but very close to the Greater
Antilles.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N77W to the
south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from SE Cuba southward between Colombia and 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hurricane Irma is forecast to be nearing the eastern coastal
waters of Hispaniola, on the Atlantic Ocean side, about sunrise
on Thursday. Its forecast track carries it northwestward during
the entire day of Thursday, still in the Atlantic Ocean waters,
toward the SE Bahamas just after midnight on Friday. Irma is
forecast to move toward SE Cuba by Friday night into early
Saturday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Hurricane Irma, and Tropical Storm Jose.

An upper level trough passes through 33N34W to 27N376W, and to
21N40W. A surface trough is along 32N32W 29N34W 25N35W.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 30W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 33N46W 30N48W 27N49W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
28N northward between 62W and 67W. rainshowers are possible from
25N northward between 60W and 66W.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the Florida Panhandle
northeastward beyond Georgia, into the Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front/stationary front is in the eastern U.S.A., paralleling the
East coast of the U.S.A. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward
between 76W and the U.S.A. coast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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