[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060614 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017

...UPDATED FOR LATEST POSITION OF HURRICANE IRMA...

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Irma at 06/0600 UTC is near 17.7N 61.8W,
or about 6 NM to the N of Barbuda, and about 35 nm to the N of
Antigua. Irma is moving WNW, or about 285 degrees, 13 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 160 kt with gusts to 195 kt. The eye
of Irma is passing over Barbuda. Irma is the strongest hurricane
observed in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean and the
Gulf of Mexico. Irma has a well defined eye about 20-25 NM in
diameter. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 150
nm of the center in the eastern semicircle, and within 75 nm of
the center in the western semicircle. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Jose at 06/0300 UTC is near 12.3N
41.7W, or about 1150 NM ESE of Hurricane Irma. Jose is moving
west, or 270 degrees 12 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are now 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered to
Numerous strong is within 150 NM in the S semicircle. scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 315 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant.

The center of Tropical Depression Thirteen is in the Gulf of
Mexico near 22.2N 96.4W or about 85 nm E of Tampico, Mexico,
moving E 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 135 nm of
the center in the NE semicircle, and within 120 nm of the center
in the SW semicircle. Numerous strong is in parts of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The upper level shear is
forecast to be less and less, which combined with the very warm
Gulf of Mexico waters, should result in gradual strengthening. It
is possible that this system may become a tropical storm later
today on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa. It
is along 20N21W, 13N24W, and 04N25W, moving W 10 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 11N to
13N between 24W and 28W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 22N78W in Cuba to
15N79W, and 08N80W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 135 nm to the south of Cuba
between 77W and 82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 20N16W at the coast of
Mauritania, to 13N20W, and to 07N29W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 03N to 15N from 58W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Thirteen is in the SW corner of the area.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and multilayered clouds and
possible precipitation are elsewhere in the area, away from
the tropical depression.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 Hurricane Irma is approaching the NE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. The long-range forecast moves Irma just outside
the islands of the Caribbean Sea, from the NE corner, in a
northwestward direction, just missing Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and Cuba. Irma is forecast to pass through the Atlantic Ocean,
but very close to the Greater Antilles.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N
to 20N between 73W and 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hurricane Irma is forecast to be nearing the NE coastal waters
of Hispaniola, on the Atlantic Ocean side, about sunrise on
Thursday. Its forecast track carries it northwestward during the
entire day of Thursday, still in the Atlantic Ocean waters. Irma
is forecast to move toward SE Cuba by Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Hurricane Irma, and Tropical Storm Jose.

An upper level trough passes through 32N34W to 26N36W, and to
21N40W. A surface trough is along 32N34W 28N36W 23N37W.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 30W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 34N46W 32N47W 27N49W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward
between 60W and 66W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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