[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260925
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
525 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N21W to 08N40W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are from 04N-11N E of 20W. Similar convection is
from 04N-17N between 31W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge influences the entire basin being anchored by a
1022 mb high centered in E Mexico near 22N99W. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds prevail E of 90W and in the SW basin. These winds
will gradually reduce through this afternoon as a new center of
high pressure forms in the NW Gulf, which will drift NNE thus
providing return flow ahead of the next cold front forecast to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday afternoon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front as it
races SE exiting the basin Sunday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS extending
into SW N Atlc waters with a base reaching western Cuba supports
a cold front analyzed across central Cuba near 21N78W to Honduras
near 15N84W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from
19N79W SW into a 1008 mb low over Nicaragua adjacent waters near
14N81W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are
occurring associated with the low from 09N-17N W of 78W. Isolated
showers are within 120 nm either side of the cold front. Latest
scatterometer data show moderate to fresh northerly winds behind
the front and in the NW quadrant of the low center. Gentle to
moderate trades are elsewhere. In the central and most of the E
Caribbean, northerly flow aloft between ridging over the western
basin and an upper level low over SE waters near 13N64W is
providing overall fair conditions and mostly clear skies.
Otherwise, a surface trough just to the E of the Lesser Antilles
continues to provide focus for scattered to isolated showers E of
64W. The front will continue to race SE to E Cuba through tonight
merging with the low center. The front will then stall before
transitioning to a warm front Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island through Friday. Moderate trades are expected to
persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough extends over the eastern CONUS
across the far SW N Atlc to a base over western Cuba. The trough
supports a cold front extending from 31N72W to the central
Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W and into the NW
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within
210 nm east of the front N of 21N and within 90 nm W of the front
S of 27N. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring W of the front
and within 135 nm ahead of it. The front is forecast to move east
and gradually weaken across the central Atlc by Sunday. A broad
middle to upper level low and associated trough over the eastern
North Atlc supports a cold front extending from 30N26W to 24N34W
to 22N47W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side
of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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