[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 08N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-11N E of 18W. Similar convection is from 04N-17N between 30W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front now fully east of the basin continues to provide a
few lingering isolated showers across the Florida Straits and the
Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a surface ridge influences the
remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1023 mb high centered
in E Mexico near 22N98W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
prevail. A high is forecast to develop in the NE Gulf this
morning, which is expected to move E-NE towards the Florida Big
Bend region through this afternoon. By Thursday night, moderate
to fresh southerly return flow will re-establish across the NW
Gulf waters as the next cold front pushes southward across the
southern Great Plains. The cold front is forecast to emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday afternoon ushering in
another round of fresh to strong northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS extending
into SW N Atlc waters with a base reaching Cuba supports a cold
front analyzed across central Cuba near 21N79W to Honduras near
15N85W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 20N78W
SW into a 1008 mb low over Nicaragua adjacent waters near 14N82W.
Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are occurring
ahead of the front to 75W. Isolated showers are W of the boundary
to the Yucatan Channel. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to
fresh northerly winds behind the front and N of the low center.
Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. In the central and most
of the E Caribbean, northerly flow aloft between ridging over the
western basin and an upper level low over SE waters near 13N64W
is providing overall fair conditions and mostly clear skies.
Otherwise, a surface trough E of the Lesser Antilles continues to
provide focus for scattered to isolated showers E of 64W. The
front will continue to race SE to E Cuba through Thursday night
and merge with the low center. The front will then stall before
transitioning to a warm front Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island through Friday. Moderate trades are expected to
persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough extends over the eastern CONUS to
a base over Cuba. The trough supports a cold front extending from
30N74W to the central Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 22N79W
and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring within 210 nm east of the front N of 22N and within 150
nm W of the front S of 24N. Generally moderate to fresh NW winds
are occurring in wake of the front this evening as it is forecast
to move east and gradually weaken across the central Atlc by
Friday night. Farther east, an upper level low supports a surface
trough analyzed from 26N60W to 28N56W generating scattered
showers and isolated tstms from 24N- 30N between 47W-59W. This
area remains on the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered north of the area near 39N57W.
Finally, an upper level trough is over the eastern North Atlc
supporting a gale force 996 mb low centered near 41N32W. The
associated cold front extends into the discussion area near 30N27W
SW to 23N42W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either
side of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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