[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A nearly stationary 1010 mb low pressure is located over the
central Atlantic near 31N40W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are mainly across the eastern semicircle. Recent
satellite-derived winds indicate that the low is producing a small
area of gale-force winds near the center. An increase in the amount
and organization of the shower activity would result in the
formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today before
environmental conditions become less favorable for development on
Monday. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is over the eastern Atlantic with axis from 13N20W to
02N21W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as
noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave's
axis, mostly related to the interaction of the wave with the
monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 17N46W
to an embedded 1009 mb low near 12N47W, to 06N48W. The wave is
moving west at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area as noted
by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb trough is well defined. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 08N-18N between 39W-50W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 18N54W
to 09N56W, moving west at 5-10 kt. The wave is embedded in a
moist area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb
trough are both well defined. Isolated moderate convection is from
12N-18N between 52W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to
05N26W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 09N46W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Nate is inland over northern Alabama,
however, a feeder band of scattered moderate convection is over
the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula mainly east of 86W. To the
west, a surface trough also extends from 30N89W to 26N95W with
scattered showers. Return flow will dominate the Gulf waters in
the wake of Nate through Monday ahead of a cold front to come off
the coast of Texas by Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rain bands persist over the far northwest Caribbean N of 20N and
west of 83W. Further east, scattered moderate convection is over
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico supported by a diffluent flow aloft
generated to the east of an upper-level low centered over the
southern Bahamas. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon
trough is producing scattered showers over Costa Rica and Panama,
as well as the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 11N.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin. A tropical wave is expected to approach the eastern
Caribbean over the next 24-48 hours with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently, scattered moderate convection prevails over the island
supported by a diffluent flow aloft generated to the east of an
upper-level low centered over the southern Bahamas. Expect
conditions to persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. A surface trough extends from 27N72W to
20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern
portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A
low pressure is developing over the central Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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